Will the record champions fulfill their duty in the Ostalb?

After two wins in a row at FC St. Pauli, 1. FC Heidenheim suffered a setback (1-2). Nevertheless, after a poor start to the season, the team is slowly getting back on track. But now, of all times, FC Bayern Munich is coming to the Ostalb, having not lost a single one of its 15 Bundesliga away games in the 2025 calendar year (eleven wins, four draws). So there is certainly not much to suggest that Heidenheim will be able to pick up points against Bayern.

While the Reds not only bring the best offense in German soccer to the Brenz (51 goals), but also have the most stable defense in the league with only eleven goals conceded, FCH is the team with both the weakest defense (30) and the most harmless offense (13) in the Bundesliga. The odds are therefore in favor of the visitors from the Isar securing an away win at the Schlossberg, which is our main recommendation.

It is striking that FC Bayern Munich has not scored as many goals per league game (3.5) against any other current Bundesliga team, but has also not conceded as many goals (1.75) against any other current first division team. The second figure in particular naturally argues against our tip for a Munich win to nil, which we justify primarily on the basis of the Red and Blues’ current lack of firepower.

Heidenheim vs. Bayern Prediction AI

AI senses an opportunity for a profitable underdog bet in this seemingly uneven matchup between the current second-to-last team and the current leaders, which is ultimately justified by the horrendous odds that the top bookmakers are offering for the Brenzstadt team to win a point. Betano is offering odds of 5.70 for a double chance 1X, which suggests a probability of 17.5 percent.

In fact, however, the AI prediction for Heidenheim vs. Bayern suggests a 20.2 percent chance of the Swabians winning a point. This is significantly higher and creates a positive expected value. Due to the high risk, however, it is important to be cautious when placing bets or, if necessary,

Heidenheim – Statistics & current form

Frank Schmidt took over as coach at 1. FC Heidenheim in the summer of 2007, when the club was still deeply rooted in German amateur soccer. The now 51-year-old coach not only guided the club from the Ostalb region to the Bundesliga, but even to the Conference League. However, this seemed to be the high point, as everyday life on the Schlossberg now consists of a relegation battle. At the end of the 2024/25 season, the Swabians only saved themselves in the relegation play-offs.

The new season looks set to be even more difficult for the Brenz-based club, who have only picked up eleven points from their first 14 games and are currently in a direct relegation spot. If Heidenheim fail to win at home against Bayern, FCH will definitely be below the line at the winter break.

Heidenheim are struggling at both ends of the pitch

Nevertheless, there are small rays of hope. Heidenheim have won two of their last three Bundesliga games (one defeat) and have lost only one of their last five league matches at home on the Schlossberg (two wins, two draws), picking up eight points from these five home games – as many as in their previous 18 Bundesliga home games combined (two wins, two draws, 14 defeats).

However, the problems at Brenz have not yet been completely resolved. With 30 goals conceded, FCH is still the Bundesliga’s whipping boy and, to make matters worse, with only 13 goals scored, it has the joint weakest offense in the top flight of German soccer.
It is difficult to imagine that Schmidt’s team, which, last but not least, also underperformed its expected goals value more significantly than any other club in 2025/26 (by -4.6), will be able to cause problems for the undefeated league leaders in this condition.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

FC Bayern Munich is marching away from the competition, so that not only are the odds clearly in favor of Kompany’s team in Heidenheim against Bayern, but also in the 2026 German championship forecast, only remarkably low odds are being offered for the championship trophy to go to the Isar again next summer, even though there are still 20 league games to play.

No wonder, because the 38 points that FCB collected in the first 14 match days were surpassed in the entire history of the Bundesliga only by the Bayern team of the 2015/16 season (40). In the 2025 calendar year, the Reds remained completely unbeaten in 15 Bundesliga away games (eleven wins, four draws), which is why the prediction for Heidenheim vs. Bayern seems to be largely without alternative for Munich’s next three points.

Bayern is the benchmark in every respect

There are slight concerns about Michael Olise, who was unable to train at short notice due to eye surgery. However, Luis Diaz is available again after serving his suspension. And then there is Lennart Karl, who is currently causing a sensation not only in the Champions League, but also in the Bundesliga, where he has already recorded his fifth goal involvement (three goals, two assists) at the age of just 17, something no Bayern player has ever achieved before at this age.

Vincent Kompany’s team not only stands out individually, but also as a team. The 51 goals scored are the best in the league, as are the eleven goals conceded in the first 14 matchdays. Accordingly, FCH will have to be on their guard against a record champions in good form, who have a higher goal average against Heidenheim than against any other Bundesliga team (an average of 3.5 goals scored per league game).

Heidenheim – Bayern Head-to-head record

Head to head: 1 – 0 – 4

Five competitive matches have been played between the two teams so far, and in four of those five cases, FC Bayern Munich came out on top, losing only their very first Bundesliga away game in the Ostalb region 2-3. In their last away game at 1. FC Heidenheim, however, the Reds celebrated a commanding 4-0 away win.

Heidenheim – Bayern Tip

The fact that the betting odds for Heidenheim vs. Bayern are so clearly in favor of the visitors is understandable in principle, but it does mean that tip 2 makes no sense from a mathematical point of view due to the residual risk and the extremely low chance of winning. While the mathematical approach of AI is to place an outsider bet for value reasons, we are looking for ways to make bet 2 work somehow. Considering that the Reds have conceded only eleven goals in 14 league games (the best record in the league) and are now facing the weakest offense in the top flight of German soccer, we see a positive expected value in betting on a clean sheet victory for Vincent Kompany’s team.