Will Villa’s mega run continue against the league leaders?
At the end of the year, there will be a real cracker on the island between two of the Premier League’s most in-form teams. Leaders Arsenal face third-placed Aston Villa, who are just three points behind the Londoners thanks to an outstanding run. Across all competitions, Unai Emery’s team have left the field as winners in eleven consecutive games.
On Saturday evening, the Villans came from behind at halftime to win 2-1 at Chelsea FC’s Stamford Bridge, underlining their top form. However, their very defensive and lackluster performance, especially in the first 45 minutes, provides enough arguments to tip the scales in favor of the Gunners in the top match between Arsenal and Aston Villa.
Mikel Arteta’s protégés are virtually unbeatable, especially in front of their home crowd. The capital club has won eleven competitive games in a row in front of their own fans. Their last home defeat, a 1-1 draw with Manchester City, dates back to September 21 this year, more than three months ago.
However, it is important to mention that clear victories have been the exception rather than the rule for the PL leaders so far this season. In many cases, two goals were enough to win.
This, in turn, can be attributed to the most stable defense in the country, which also plays a central role in my Arsenal vs. Aston Villa prediction. Eleven goals conceded in total and four goals conceded in nine home games are impressive statistics that are unmatched in the Premier League. However, because the visitors from Birmingham have also built their winning streak on concentrated defensive performances, it is primarily the odds on under goals that I am recommending ahead of the big game between Arsenal and Aston Villa.
Given that Ollie Watkins, Morgan Rogers, and Co. are currently in good form and are even winning games in which they are actually inferior, there is logically a certain residual risk in a potential bet on a home win. In view of this, the Arsenal vs. Aston Villa betting odds on the league leaders winning are too low to be considered a good bet.
I therefore advocate the match combo of double chance 1X with under 3.5 goals, which would have been true in seven of the Gunners’ nine PL home games this season.
Arsenal – Aston Villa Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The two clubs faced each other in the first leg on St. Nicholas Day. Arsenal FC suffered only their second defeat of the season at Villa Park. Matty Cash, who will be suspended on Tuesday evening, gave the supposed underdogs the lead. Trossard equalized after the break, before Buendia scored the celebrated winning goal for Emery’s team in stoppage time. Incidentally, the Spanish head coach will be back on the sidelines at the Emirates Stadium for the third time since his time with the Gunners. In his last two attempts, Emery took four out of a possible six points with Aston Villa. Ultimately, the Londoners have won only one of their last five direct duels (1-1-3) against their upcoming opponents.
Arsenal – Aston Villa Tip
Eleven home wins across all competitions meet eleven consecutive competitive wins. Arsenal FC and Aston Villa, two of the best club teams in Europe at the moment, will face each other on the penultimate day of the year in the Premier League. The visitors from Birmingham (3rd) could even draw level on points with the leaders with a win. Unlike three weeks ago, when the Villans won 2-1 at home against the Gunners, I expect the tide to turn on Tuesday. Arteta’s team has been strong at home and defensively so far this season.
In what is likely to be a low-scoring game – 1.90 for under 2.5 – I see the advantage lying with the home side, who have conceded only four goals in nine home games and currently have more room for improvement in attack, if anything. With my preferred Arsenal vs. Aston Villa tip on 1X & Under 3.5, I am taking into account the steep upward trend in form of both teams equally and am not ruling out a possible draw.
