Will Wirtz lead LFC to their first win of the new year?
It took a long time, but Florian Wirtz finally seems to have settled in at his new club and in the Premier League. The exceptional talent has been directly involved in a Liverpool goal in each of the last two PL games, even scoring his first goal in an LFC shirt in the narrow 2-1 win against bottom-of-the-table Wolverhampton, making him one of the key players in the Reds’ noticeable improvement in form.
Including the Champions League, the reigning English champions have recorded four wins in a row. In the standings, the Slot XI have already worked their way up to fourth place. Although there is still plenty of room for improvement in terms of performance, there is much to suggest that a bet on the men from the Beatles’ city will pay off in Liverpool’s match against Leeds.
Nevertheless, the visitors from West Yorkshire should not be underestimated. After initial difficulties and a temporary losing streak, German coach Daniel Farke’s team has been extremely consistent in recent weeks. The Peacocks have not lost any of their last five PL matches. During this period, they also managed to put two stronger opponents, Chelsea (3-1) and Crystal Palace (4-1), in their place in spectacular fashion. Sixteenth place with a seven-point cushion above the first relegation spot is an impressive achievement for the newly promoted team.
However, the positive mood among the Whites must be put into perspective, as only five of their 20 points have been earned away from home. Leeds United have not won an away game in the English top flight since September 20. That is precisely why I am refraining from predicting an upset by the underdogs between Liverpool and Leeds.
What I definitely think the northern English team is capable of, however, is scoring a goal at Anfield Road. Why? Because, on the one hand, the promoted team has scored at least one goal in each of its last eight league games. On the other hand, because it has scored a whopping twelve goals (!) in its last five matches in the English top flight.
Only three other clubs in the top nine have scored (slightly) more goals than the Whites, who are not about to hide given their confidence and the LFC’s still shaky defense.
The Reds have already conceded 26 goals in total and are also – behind Manchester United – the team in the top half of the table with the highest percentage of “BTTS” games, i.e., matches in which both teams score (61%). As a logical consequence, the odds for “both teams to score” are on my betting slip ahead of Liverpool’s clash with Leeds.
Liverpool – Leeds Head-to-head record
The first leg between these teams took place on St. Nicholas Day. Thanks to a brace from Hugo Ekitike immediately after halftime, it initially looked like an expected victory for the Reds, but after the score was tied at 2-2 and LFC regained the lead, it was Ao Tanaka who scored the final goal in the sixth minute of stoppage time to make it 3-3. Over the 90 minutes, the opponents created six (!) big chances and added up to an xG of almost 3.50.
These fresh impressions from just over three weeks ago underscore my approach of primarily focusing on the betting odds for over goals in the Liverpool vs. Leeds match.
Liverpool – Leeds Tip
Liverpool FC faces a challenge in the Premier League on the very first day of the new year. However, New Year’s Day games have not been particularly good for the Reds in recent years. In the last eleven years, they have only won their first match of the year on three occasions. The probability that this statistic will be improved on Thursday is high.
At home against newly promoted Leeds United, the strengthened Slot XI are clear favorites. Perhaps even a little too clear, considering that the Whites are unbeaten in five PL matches in a row and were able to snatch a point from the reigning champions at home on St. Nicholas Day (3-3).
However, given that the Peacocks are weaker away from home and Liverpool have also been in good form, I am leaning towards over goals or both teams scoring. The latter approach is even better odds, which is why I ultimately decided to bet on “both teams to score” ahead of the Liverpool vs. Leeds match.
