Will Maurizio Sarri be back on the bench this weekend?
Two highly respected Italian soccer coaches will pit their pre-match plans against each other in Lazio Rome vs. Napoli. That is, assuming Maurizio Sarri is back on the bench this weekend. Just a few days ago, the 66-year-old underwent heart surgery.
However, according to the club, Sarri has recovered well from the operation. Nevertheless, assistant coach Marco Ianni will be supervising training ahead of our Lazio Rome vs. Napoli prediction.
It’s no surprise that they are the underdogs. The Biancocelesti are eighth in the table, with a meager goal difference of 18:12. Anyone who has seen the expected tables knows that this position is actually quite flattering.
Sarri and his team are only in 17th place in this theoretical overview with 18.7 expected points. This data is a strong argument for the distribution of the Lazio Rome – Napoli betting odds – as well as for our betting recommendation.
It is true that Lazio have conceded only twelve goals – the fourth-best record in the Italian top flight. It is also true that the Eagles have conceded only five goals at home. However, it is equally true that they have conceded 21.8 expected goals – twelfth in the league.
Lazio Rome – Napoli Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The reigning champions have never had an easy time against the Romans in recent years. Lazio have not lost any of their six previous competitive encounters and even advanced to the Coppa Italia quarterfinals last season with a 3-1 home win against Napoli.
Under the current circumstances, however, you should still consider the hosts as underdogs. Maurizio Sarri is known for his offensive style of play, but Lazio have been unable to find a consistent way to score goals this season. That will be a problem in their home game against SSC.
Lazio Rome – Napoli Tip
The Biancocelesti have played 17 league games this season, winning only six (6D, 5L). Their own offensive play has been identified as a limiting factor. Sarri’s protégés have not yet scored more than 18 goals. 17.6 expected goals (17th) show the resilience of this figure.
Too often, big chances are missed. The average quality of scoring opportunities is among the weakest in the league (18th). The Partenopei are much more stringent and appear more often in promising shooting positions. No one has scored more expected goals per shot than SSC (0.12 xG/shot).
Lazio plays slowly up front (1.51 m/s – slowest “direct speed” in Serie A). Typical of Sarri’s style of soccer, neat short passing is supposed to lead to success. However, the hosts make too many mistakes. Seventeen unforced errors have led to shots on goal by the opposition so far – the joint highest number in Serie A.
The eighth-placed team has rarely been punished for this, with only two goals conceded from these shots. By comparison, Juve also allowed 17 shots on goal after their own mistakes and had to retrieve the ball from their own net seven times.
