Will the Red Bulls celebrate at Millerntor for the first time?
The Bundesliga was on winter break for just under three weeks. This could be extended for the two clubs in our St. Pauli vs. RB Leipzig tip. The Hanseatic club fears snowfall that could prevent the kickoff of the 16th matchday at Millerntor.
First of all, however, we assume in our St. Pauli vs. RB Leipzig prediction that the North Germans will create the necessary conditions. Home games against the Saxons have been a real joy so far for the Boys in Brown, who have yet to lose a competitive game against RBL at Millerntor.
If you like, the hosts are even starting the resumption of the 2025/2026 Bundesliga season in better form. Alexander Blessin and his team remained unbeaten in the last four competitive games of the previous calendar year (2W, 2D).
The final results of the Rasenballsportler were less encouraging, with two 1-3 defeats in a row (Union Berlin and Leverkusen) going into the short winter break.
Ole Werner is not yet fighting for the championship with the Red Bulls, but he has at least put RBL back in the running for Champions League places. The visitors are only three points behind second place in the table, currently occupied by Borussia Dortmund.
Compared to the Kiezkickers (12), the fourth-placed team (29) has taken more than twice as many points from the 15 rounds played so far. We see Werner’s defensive unit in particular as having an advantage over the home side’s offensive personnel.
St. Pauli vs. RB Leipzig Prediction AI
If we look at the table through the lens of expected points, Alexander Blessin’s team should be at the bottom of the table (12.9 xPTS). Leipzig are exactly where the table puts them – in fourth place (25.1 xPTS), on a par with Leverkusen and Dortmund. This difference is one reason why our artificial intelligence predicts a “RB Leipzig win” in the St. Pauli vs. RB Leipzig prediction.
St. Pauli – Statistics & current form
Some had predicted a quiet year for the Hanseatic club in the run-up to the new Bundesliga season. The Kiezkickers’ defense had done a fantastic job in their first season back in the German top flight and had been among the best in the Bundesliga for long stretches.
Alexander Blessin’s protégés are no longer performing at this level. Only five teams have fished the ball out of their own net more often than the North Germans (26) this season. It could have been much worse if it weren’t for goalkeeper Nikola Vasilj.
The Bosnian national goalkeeper knows how to use his height to excellent effect. He has already thwarted several big chances and prevented 4.2 goals – the best record among all Bundesliga goalkeepers in the current competition. At the end of the 2025 calendar year, his teammates also found their feet again, holding Mainz (0-0) to 0.62 expected goals at the end of the year. The home side are continuing this trend in the St. Pauli vs. RB Leipzig tip.
Idling in attack
As soon as the challenges of defending are mastered with the necessary consistency, the Boys in Brown can once again devote themselves to their biggest area of improvement – their attacking play. No other team in the Bundesliga this season has taken fewer shots than the North Germans (10.5 per game).
The home side cannot necessarily be accused of a lack of interest in attacking play. Pauli played the sixth-most passes of any Bundesliga club into the attacking third. However, they are struggling to convert these sequences into shots on goal.
In the 2025 calendar year, the Kiezkickers failed to score in 16 of 34 Bundesliga games. That is the highest number in the league and was only surpassed in the top five European leagues by Hellas Verona (18) and Lecce (17).
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
The Red Bulls have processed two consecutive defeats at the end of the 2025 calendar year in the sunny Algarve. Ole Werner and his team chose Almancil as their training camp location from January 2 to 7. According to reports from the camp, the team focused consistently on defensive play and counter-pressing.
We are particularly pleased to hear this information ahead of the St. Pauli vs. RB Leipzig match. Head coach Werner was also delighted with the return of several key players, including regular goalkeeper Peter Gulacsi. The 35-year-old has claimed the most clean sheets so far this season (7) after Gregor Kobel (8) and will be available for the start of the new calendar year.
Immediately behind Lukas Klostermann, the longest-serving RB professional, is the player with the strongest tackling record of the current season. Willi Orban has won 81.16 percent of his defensive duels. The 33-year-old is also reliable: he has started every Bundesliga game and played 99 percent of the minutes.
Too little coming from the bench
Last summer, the Saxony club’s management did more than just appoint a new coach. Several promising young professionals were signed for the offensive department. Among them is Yan Diomande (19), whose eight scoring points are surpassed internally only by Christoph Baumgartner (12).
However, Diomande is currently with the Ivory Coast at the Africa Cup of Nations and will be unavailable for the start of the year at Millerntor, as will Johan Bakayoko. The 22-year-old also joined the Red Bulls in the summer, but has only been able to train individually recently.
Such absences hit Ole Werner’s team harder than many other teams. Leipzig has scored only two goals from the bench in 15 Bundesliga matches. Only St. Pauli 1 has received less goal threat from its substitute professionals.
St. Pauli – RB Leipzig Head-to-head record
The Rasenballsportler have made three trips to the Millerntor so far. The first two encounters at the Kiezkicker’s home ground took place in the German second division and ended in narrow 1-0 victories for the Hanseatic side. At Bundesliga level, RBL have only visited Pauli once. There, the Saxons remained goalless for the third time in a row, but kept a clean sheet for the first time (0-0).
St. Pauli – RB Leipzig Tip
Martijn Kaars found his feet with the Kiezkickers towards the end of the 2025 calendar year, scoring three competitive goals in his final three appearances. However, Andreas Hountondji remains the hosts’ top scorer (4 Bundesliga goals).
The 23-year-old will miss the start of the 2026 competitive season, as well as the Africa Cup of Nations. He suffered a hairline fracture in his ankle against Mainz and is still undergoing rehabilitation. Without him, the Hanseatic club will be lacking in goal-scoring threat.
St. Pauli has scored the fewest goals in the league (13, along with Heidenheim and Mainz). The Hanseatic fans’ worries are compounded when they look at the expected goals. No other team in the German top flight currently has a lower xG value than 12.65.
High-quality scoring chances are few and far between, and RBL is particularly good at not giving away promising scoring opportunities. Defensively, the Boys in Brown have at least been able to raise their level again, so we expect a low-scoring encounter.
