Who will score for the Werkself?

Not everyone finds it easy to transition from vacation back to their daily routine. Sometimes it’s the surprising intensity of the workday. Sometimes it’s just a bad day. The Werkself experienced one such day at the start of the year in their direct duel with VfB Stuttgart (1:4). The fourth-placed team is now looking stronger in our HSV vs. Leverkusen tip.

Don’t forget the circumstances surrounding head coach Kasper Hjulmand and his team. In the absence of several attacking players, Danish player Martin Terrier stepped in as an emergency striker. The Frenchman only made his season debut on the seventh matchday after tearing his Achilles tendon and is still looking for consistency in his performances. In our HSV vs. Leverkusen prediction, the visitors are fielding different personnel in attack.

Among the best sports betting providers, the Black and Reds are considered the favorites, although the hosts from northern Germany are making the HSV – Leverkusen betting odds more open than we expected. A win for B04 often brings you more than double your winnings.

On the visitors’ side, everyone involved was self-critical after the 1-4 defeat against Stuttgart – at half-time, B04 were already 0-4 down and had shown an alarmingly weak first half. The fourth-placed team will not take this poor performance lying down at the Volksparkstadion.

The Rothosen’s key players seemed irritated after their narrow 1-2 defeat to SC Freiburg. Head coach Merlin Polzin was particularly frustrated by an unpunished elbow in an aerial duel immediately before the 1-2 goal. The 35-year-old is now looking ahead with concern to the next matchday of a busy week, which his regular goalkeeper Daniel Heuer Fernandes will start injured.

HSV – Statistics & current form

Four northern clubs are participating in the 2025/26 Bundesliga season – all of them are in the lower half of the table. The quartet is led by arch-rivals Werder Bremen (17 points), who have so far picked up one point more than HSV (16). Wolfsburg (15) are directly behind the Rothosen, while St. Pauli (12) occupy the relegation spot.

Immediately after returning to the German top flight, the only thing that matters for Merlin Polzin’s team is staying up. Good results at the Volksparkstadion are extremely important for this. The Hanseatic team secured 87.5 percent of their points at their own stadium (4W, 2D, 2L). According to our HSV – Leverkusen prediction, no further points will be added at the end of the first half of the season.

Up front, captain Yussuf Poulsen and Rober Glatzel are still out. Damion Downs was brought in on loan from Southampton FC in the winter. The 21-year-old started against SC Freiburg. However, the striker’s lack of playing time in the first half of the season (12 percent of minutes played in the Championship) was evident.

Help at the Volksparkstadion

The Rothosen’s home ground is a relevant factor. Countless chants echo from the stands in every match – from an average of 56,888 throats. No wonder that the Bundesliga returnee has scored 13 of his 17 goals this season at the Volksparkstadion.

However, the defense could become a critical factor in the duel with Werkself. Regular goalkeeper Daniel Heuer Fernandes struggled through the game against Freiburg with shoulder pain. Behind him, only Hannes Hermann is currently on the bench. The 20-year-old could perhaps make his Bundesliga debut.

Heuer Fernandes is already performing below average in a league comparison of Bundesliga goalkeepers (2.0 more goals conceded than expected). In addition, the suspended Daniel Elfadli (yellow-red card vs. Freiburg) is a key player in defense. This greatly weakens one of the weaker defenses in the Bundesliga (12th).

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

There was no warning sign for the lackluster performance in their own stadium against a direct competitor for the Champions League spots. At least the lack of productivity in attack is explainable.
Kasper Hjulmand had to do without top scorer Patrick Schick at short notice. The 29-year-old could be an option for the starting lineup again in the HSV – Leverkusen prediction.

His direct backup was also not in the squad. Christian Kofane was still playing for Cameroon in the Africa Cup of Nations. The 19-year-old may be an option again for the first half of the season finale in northern Germany. Eliesse Ben Seghir remains with Morocco at the AFCON, while the return of Ibrahim Maza and Edmond Tabsoba is also under discussion.

In our HSV vs. Leverkusen prediction, we expect to see an improved attitude from the visiting team, which, with changes in personnel in the attacking positions, is once again more reminiscent of the second-best expected attack in the Bundesliga (29.0 xG) than it was at the start of the year against VfB.

Leverkusen vs. HSV more open than desired?

That’s not to say that the Werkself can count on an away win. B04 has already played too many wild games away from the BayArena this season. The fourth-placed team has scored an average of 4.14 goals per away game – the second-highest figure in the German top flight.

Away from home, Hjulmand’s team has scored 2.14 goals per game so far, but has also conceded 2.0 goals per game. Goalkeeper Markt Flekken has conceded 2.4 more goals than expected (15th), but has the third-best save percentage (69.2 percent). The 32-year-old does his job, but also saves few difficult shots.

Nevertheless, Leverkusen has the second-best expected goal difference (+9.4) at the end of the first half of the season. Bayer usually plays dominantly (average possession of 59.1 percent) and creates many big chances (60 – the second-best figure in the Bundesliga).

HSV – Leverkusen Head-to-head record / H2H balance

This is the first time the two clubs have faced each other in a competitive match since 2018. Back then, Leverkusen won 2-1 at the Volksparkstadion to complete their Bundesliga double. B04 had won the match in the first half of the Bundesliga season even more convincingly (3-0). Hjulmand’s team cannot afford any slip-ups in the race for the Champions League places at the moment.

HSV – Leverkusen Tip

Most of the time, the Werkself finds a way to get on the scoreboard in this Bundesliga season. Alejandro Grimaldo makes every set piece dangerous, and the individual quality is high. On average, B04 scores a goal every 42 minutes of play.

The fourth-placed team has finished more than half of its Bundesliga games this season with at least two goals of its own (63 percent). Away from home, the rate rises even more significantly (71 percent). Leverkusen has even scored more than 2.5 goals in more than half of its away games (56 percent).

A game without a B04 goal is extremely rare (13 percent). Even a lackluster performance like the one against VfB Stuttgart (1-4) did not end without a goal from the Werkself. The defense of the Bundesliga returnees from northern Germany has a lot of work ahead of them.