Nothing to gain for the strong Saxons at home?
After RB Leipzig ended 2025 somewhat ingloriously with two defeats in a row, the Saxons now managed an important 2-0 victory in their first Bundesliga match of the new calendar year, after their away game at St. Pauli fell victim to the onset of winter. FC Bayern Munich, on the other hand, beat both Wolfsburg (8-1) and Cologne (3-1), officially setting the record for the best Bundesliga first half of the season ever.
The Reds had already achieved 47 out of a possible 51 points under Pep Guardiola (2013/14), but not with this surreal goal difference of +53 (66:13). In our opinion, there is no alternative to betting on an away win for the German record champions in the match between RB Leipzig and Bayern.
Admittedly, the Red Bulls cannot be denied a certain home strength. After all, RBL won seven of their eight Bundesliga home games in the 2025/26 season (one defeat). However, the penultimate home game brought a 1-3 defeat against Bayer Leverkusen. FCB, on the other hand, has scored at least two goals in each of its last 25 Bundesliga games across two seasons and should therefore come out on top at the Red Bull Arena. We therefore recommend betting on an away win for Kompany’s team in RB Leipzig vs. Bayern.
Considering that the Reds managed a 3-1 away win even with a rather average performance like on Wednesday evening at 1. FC Köln, there could be more away goals for the record champions to celebrate this time around. FCB already crushed the Red Bulls 6-0 in the first leg.
RB Leipzig vs. Bayern Prediction AI
While from a human perspective we can’t see any value in betting on the Saxons, who are strong at home, to win points given Munich’s incredibly dominant first half of the season, the AI prediction for RB Leipzig vs. Bayern is aiming precisely at this. Due to the horrendous odds being offered for tip 1, AI already finds a positive expected value in the three-way system.
However, the AI becomes even clearer when an Asian handicap of +1.0 is applied to the Red Bulls, for which odds of 2.02 are advertised in the bet365 app, implying a probability of 49.5 percent. AI estimates the probability of this tip coming in at 51.3 percent, which is significantly higher.
RB Leipzig – Statistics & current form
After missing out on qualifying for European competition, RB Leipzig is back on track for Europe in the 2025/26 season under Ole Werner. With a 2-0 win over SC Freiburg on Wednesday evening, the Saxons consolidated their third place and would currently qualify for the UEFA Champions League again. In addition, the Red Bulls also made it to the quarterfinals of the DFB Cup, where they face a difficult away game in Munich in four weeks’ time.
With regard to that cup game, it would be worth its weight in gold for the Saxons if RB Leipzig were to beat Bayern at home, which would be a small exclamation mark for the two-time cup winners. Not only did RBL lose the first leg against the team from Munich by a crushing 0-6, but the Red Bulls have also been waiting for a win against the German record champions for five competitive games (two draws, three defeats).
RB Leipzig with strong home record
Nevertheless, Ole Werner’s team has a lot of momentum and, above all, a high level of home strength. At their home ground, the Red Bull Arena, the Saxons have picked up 21 out of a possible 24 points, which is only surpassed in the league by today’s visitors from Munich (25). The Red Bulls have won seven of their eight Bundesliga home games (one defeat), scoring an impressive 21 goals and conceding only six in front of their home crowd.
And yet, Bayern are a different caliber altogether, which is why we ultimately expect Werner’s team to suffer their second home defeat of the 2025/26 season. At least when it comes to set pieces, the Red Bulls should have everything under control. After all, no other team has conceded as few goals from set pieces as RBL this season (only two).
Bayern – Statistics & current form
Vincent Kompany was very modest when asked and did not want to be compared to Pep Guardiola under any circumstances. Nevertheless, the Belgian coach of Munich has now made history by securing a new record for the best Bundesliga first half of the season ever with his team. The record champions collected 47 out of a possible 51 points in the first 17 match days and thus start the second half of the season with an eleven-point lead over Borussia Dortmund.
The best Bayern team of all time?
In addition to a very solid defense, which has gained even more stability with the summer transfer of Jonathan Tah, Munich’s efficient offense stands out above all else. Bayern have already scored an incredible 66 goals in the first 17 matchdays. This is also a new Bundesliga record, which the Reds would now like to extend further at the Red Bull Arena.
The chances of another goal fest are definitely there, as FCB have scored at least two goals per league game in each of their last 25 Bundesliga matches across two seasons. Even in a comparatively average performance like Wednesday evening in Cologne, they still managed three goals in a 3-1 comeback victory. Leipzig will have to be on their guard despite home advantage.
RB Leipzig – Bayern Head-to-head record
Head to head: 12 – 8 – 3
A total of 23 competitive matches have been played between the two clubs so far, and RB Leipzig has only beaten Bayern three times. The Red Bulls have been waiting since 2018 for another Bundesliga home win against the German record champions, who clearly showed RBL their limits in the first leg. On matchday 1, FCB defeated the Saxons 6-0 in front of their home crowd.
RB Leipzig – Bayern Tip
The Red Bulls shook off their mini-slump with a 2-0 home win against SC Freiburg on Wednesday evening, picking up three important points in their quest to qualify for the Champions League after two consecutive Bundesliga defeats. However, we do not consider it overly likely that the Saxons, who are strong at home but lost 6-0 to the record champions in the first leg, will now cause problems for the leaders.
Munich have been too dominant so far, scoring 66 goals, more than twice as many as the Red Bulls (32), and scoring at least twice in each of their last 25 Bundesliga games without exception. Our prediction for RB Leipzig vs. Bayern therefore clearly favors the visitors.
Because the betting odds for RB Leipzig vs. Bayern are 1.60 for a Munich away win, we believe that the three-way system already offers sufficiently high value. Our main recommendation is therefore quite simply tip 2, which we are betting on with six out of ten units via the practical Bet-at-home app.
