Who can still conquer Villa Park?
Praise for Unai Emery is currently the norm among Villa fans. Their gratitude towards the Spanish coach and the team is regularly expressed on home match days in a fantastic atmosphere, which we expect to see again on Sunday – according to our first Aston Villa vs. Everton tip.
However, the surprise title contenders face a complicated task. Although the Toffees are a mid-table team (12th), their defensive organization is often decisive in close matches and battles of attrition.
The Toffees’ attacking play focuses on getting the ball to strong dribblers with just a few passes. From there, they aim to create one-on-one situations. No other PL team plays fewer passes per sequence than the visitors (2.98). This works sometimes more, sometimes less, but brings the Aston Villa – Everton betting odds for the number of goals to the fore.
Unai Emery is considered a tactical genius. For the upcoming home game against the Toffees, he needs to come up with solutions to break down a deep defensive block. That could take some time, but we expect the Villans themselves to make few mistakes in defense.
As a recommendation, we are going for odds of 1.93 on “Under 2.5 goals” in the game in the Bet-at-Home app for Aston Villa vs. Everton. This would clearly fit in with the visitors’ season so far, as they have scored more than two goals in their away games less often than any other team in the English top flight (33 percent).
Aston Villa – Everton Head-to-head record
Recently, the meetings between the two teams have shown a clear pattern – there have been few goals to watch. Two of the four previous matches between the Villans and the Toffees ended goalless, including the first-half clash (0-0).
It is difficult to predict the winner with any certainty. Villa are, of course, extremely strong at home (unbeaten in eleven home games across all competitions) and are having a formidable season. On the other hand, David Moyes’ team has lost only one of its previous six Premier League away games (3W, 2D).
Aston Villa – Everton Tip
Both coaches particularly enjoy a game when their own team makes few mistakes and, ideally, wins without conceding a goal. Emery has taken 40 percent of PL home games in the current season without conceding a goal (joint third-best record).
Everton has achieved exactly the same rate of clean sheets in away games so far this season. Over the entire season, the Toffees have finished 38 percent of their games without conceding a goal – the fourth-best record in the league.
If there have been any notable features of the visitors’ competitive games, it has been the repeated low-scoring encounters. On average, Moyes’ side’s PL games have contained just 2.29 goals (18th). Away games have even undercut this figure with less than two goals per game (1.90).
In addition, referees have awarded “under 2.5 goals” in 80 percent of Everton’s away games in the Premier League this season. At least the Toffees’ fans know what they’re getting into when they buy a ticket.
