Will FCA slip into a relegation spot?

For a long time, it looked as though FC Augsburg could score a big win on Thursday evening in the last Bundesliga game of the first half of the season. At home against Union Berlin, the Fuggerstadt team led 1-0 for a long time and even had a man advantage after a red card in the final stages. However, a late goal meant that it wasn’t enough for three points.

The fact is that the 1-1 draw feels like a defeat and the situation for the South Swabians is getting worse. Baum’s team will make their next attempt to distance themselves from the relegation zone on Sunday against SC Freiburg. However, ahead of the match between Augsburg and Freiburg, a bet on the hosts is not one of my subjective betting recommendations.

Augsburg are now without a win in four Bundesliga games. Even more worrying than the results, however, were the performances in the 4-0 defeat in Gladbach last weekend and against Union Berlin on Thursday. Defensively, you can’t really fault the 15th-placed team, although their very destructive approach clearly comes at the expense of their attacking threat. Every shot on goal for FCA has to be hard-earned. Goals of their own are in short supply.

That’s exactly why my Augsburg vs. Freiburg prediction is based on under goals. Given the circumstances, I would be surprised if there were more than three goals in the game.

The second approach is based on the fact that the visitors from Breisgau have a slight advantage in terms of form and have recently performed better despite a still improvable away record. After Wednesday evening’s 2-0 defeat in Leipzig, the Sport-Club also wants to show a reaction and not lose touch with the European places. The start of the second half of the season is therefore crucial for both teams, which can be cited as further evidence to support the odds of a low-scoring game between Augsburg and Freiburg.

Augsburg vs. Freiburg Prediction AI

Artificial intelligence is also finding it anything but easy to make a suitable Augsburg vs. Freiburg AI prediction. The AI also sees a duel between two evenly matched teams with minimal advantages for SCF. This assessment is primarily based on the xG values of 1.25 for FCA and 1.35 for Freiburg. This in turn results in a 41.1% probability that the Sport-Club will return home from Augsburg with three points.

Augsburg – Statistics & current form

Before the season, FC Augsburg wanted to strike out in a new direction. They wanted to move away from the narrative of being a dull, boring team and towards more footballing sex appeal. Sandro Wagner was signed as Germany’s most exciting coaching talent. Media interest was greater than ever before in the rather quiet city of Augsburg.

Six months later, the concept has been almost completely turned on its head. Wagner is long gone, and the pious wish to play more attractive soccer has given way to the pragmatic playing style of Manuel Baum, who was confirmed as head coach until the summer shortly before the winter break. As is so often the case in southern Swabia, caution, structure, and risk minimization have found their way into FCA’s game.

Augsburg’s goal threat is limited

A look at the latest results and performances underscores why there is virtually no alternative but to bet on under goals between Augsburg and Freiburg. In a total of five Bundesliga games under Manuel Baum, just nine goals were scored. However, this statistic is somewhat distorted by the aforementioned 0-4 defeat in Gladbach at the weekend. In the remaining four matches, under 2.5 would have been the result. Looking back at the last twelve competitive games, only three times would a bet on over 3.5 have paid off, which is why this line can be used for a match combo with a clear conscience.

To make matters worse, FCA has scored only one goal in its last four Bundesliga games. In seven of the last eleven competitive games, Claude-Maurice and Co. failed to score.
It’s hard to imagine that the relegation candidates will suddenly set off an offensive fireworks display against the usually well-organized SCF defense. Overall, the negative aspects outweigh the positive, which is why my preferred approach is to bet on DNB 2 before the Augsburg vs. Freiburg match.

Freiburg – Statistics & current form

The haul of 23 points after 17 matchdays definitely does not meet the expectations of the SCF management. After regularly competing for a place in the top six in recent years and qualifying for international competition on several occasions, the Breisgauers will have to stretch themselves enormously in 2025/26 to avoid losing sight of the European Cup places prematurely. In eighth place, they are already six points behind sixth-placed Leverkusen, even though Leverkusen still have a game in hand. Head coach Julian Schuster’s team will therefore need to improve significantly in the second half of the season.

Freiburg without Lienhart and Ginter again?

However, the team is currently lacking confidence in its own abilities. During the week, Freiburg virtually gave up before kick-off, defended with two buses in front of their own goal in Leipzig and ultimately had to admit defeat with a 0-2 loss. They managed just three shots on goal. Nevertheless, their defensive performance was positive. This was especially impressive given that regular center backs Gintner and Lienhart were missing and Bruno Ogbus, a reserve player, made his starting debut in the top flight. Two set pieces ultimately gave the Saxons the three points.

With similarly courageous and passionate defending and a little more courage in attack, three points should be within reach for the Breisgauers on Sunday. The only problem is that Schuster’s team has only picked up eight points from nine games away from home, scoring eleven goals in the process – four of them before the winter break in a 4-3 win in Wolfsburg.

Otherwise, the harmless offense remains the biggest criticism of SCF, which even leads me to believe that the score will still be 0-0 after 45 minutes in this match on the 18th matchday of the Bundesliga.

Augsburg – Freiburg Head-to-head record / H2H balance

Vincenzo Grifo is still well on his way to catching up with Freiburg’s record goalscorer Nils Petersen. The former Bayern striker is just one competitive goal ahead of the Italian, who is still active. It is quite possible that Grifo will catch up with Petersen on Sunday, as the set-piece specialist has scored more often against FCA than against any other Bundesliga team. Grifo has found the net in four of the last five head-to-head matches, including the first leg on the opening day of the season, which Freiburg nevertheless lost 3-1. SCF last won in Augsburg in 2022. Overall, the Sport-Club’s record is respectable, with four wins from the last seven encounters against Augsburg (4-2-1).

Augsburg – Freiburg Tip

FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg will be battling for important points on Sunday. The hosts are desperate to pick up three points after their disappointing late 1-1 draw against Union Berlin. The same applies to SC Freiburg, who lost 2-0 in Leipzig during the week. While Matthias Ginter could return after his illness, Lienhart remains sidelined. I therefore assume that there will be no change to the Breisgauers’ rather defensive basic structure. Especially considering that they have only managed to pick up eight points in nine away games.

Although I see advantages for Schuster’s team, betting on a home win is not my preferred option. Despite the justified criticism of FCA, it must be noted that Augsburg have remained unbeaten at home in their last four games (two wins, two draws). However, given their lack of offensive threat and recent performances, I don’t believe they will win at home either. Ultimately, I am therefore going for X2 & Under 3.5 between Augsburg and Freiburg. My stake is four units.