Will the Filderstadt native surprise us again?
Since Angelique Kerber finally ended her career, things have become increasingly quiet around the DTB women. The fact that most of the major tournaments in 2025 did not degenerate into a complete farce was often thanks to Laura Siegemund, who won a total of eight singles matches at the four Grand Slam tournaments last year and even made it to the quarterfinals at Wimbledon. Down Under, the Filderstadt native won nine of her 17 singles matches. However, she has now drawn a difficult opponent in the form of the number 18 seed. Nevertheless, we believe that Laura Siegemund has a good chance of defeating Liudmila Samsonova.
The natural favorite is the Russian, who is ten years younger and currently ranked 18th in the WTA world rankings, 30 places ahead of Laura Siegemund. However, this assessment by the best bookmakers raises questions. Not only has the Russian, who played under the Italian flag between 2014 and 2018, won only four of her ten singles matches in the Australian Open women’s singles, but she has also lost twice in a row to Laura Siegemund 1:2. We therefore find the option of placing a handicap of +1.5 sets on the Filderstadt native, which would also cover a 1:2 defeat for the 37-year-old, to be quite interesting.
From a purely mathematical point of view, it also makes sense to play the underdog bet in a two-way system. For Laura Siegemund to advance, the bet365 app is offering odds of 4.50 for Laura Siegemund against Liudmila Samsonova, which is already in the value range with a 23 percent probability of victory for the Filderstadt native.
And we would even give the 37-year-old a much higher chance of winning, in the range of at least 33 percent. Not only does she have a significantly higher win rate at the Australian Open (53 percent compared to Samsonova’s 40 percent), but she also beat the Muscovite 2-1 in their last two direct encounters.
Laura Siegemund – Liudmila Samsonova Head-to-head record
Head to head: 2:2
The two players have faced each other four times so far, and after Liudmila Samsonova won the first two matches 2-0, Laura Siegemund was able to even the head-to-head record with two 2-1 victories against the Russian. In terms of sets, the ten-years-younger player from Moscow still has a slight advantage. Overall, however, the head-to-head record is even.
Laura Siegemund – Liudmila Samsonova Tip
As the number 18 in the WTA world rankings and a seeded player, the 27-year-old Russian is the favorite on paper. However, as we have pointed out, there are factors that favor Laura Siegemund against Liudmila Samsonova and suggest that the German, who has no reason to fear the Muscovite, will advance. In their last meeting to date, the Filderstadt native defeated the Russian 2-1 (6-7, 6-4, 6-4) here Down Under at the 2024 Adelaide International. At Melbourne Park, Siegemund’s win rate (53 percent) is also significantly higher than that of Samsonova (40 percent), who has never made it past the second round at the Australian Open.
However, since an elimination of the Filderstadt native, who is focused on doubles, would not come out of the blue, we are placing a handicap of +1.5 sets on the German in our main recommendation, which would also cover a 1:2 defeat. For this, Bet-at-home is offering odds of 2.15 on Laura Siegemund against Liudmila Samsonova, which we are betting on with three out of ten units via the Bet-at-home mobile app.
