Can BVB continue to dream of the top 8?
There are two match days left in the group stage of the UEFA Champions League. The battle for a place in the top 8, which would mean direct entry into the round of 16, is just as exciting as the race for the playoff spots.
The direct duel between two neighbors in the table promises to be particularly interesting. It is clear that the outcome of the match between Tottenham and Dortmund will have a direct impact on the standings.
The teams are currently tied on eleven points in tenth and eleventh place. They are only one point behind the team in eighth place. The winner of this match will therefore have all the cards in their hand to earn a place in next week’s final. Depending on the results in the other stadiums, the loser will find themselves in a much more difficult position. A draw doesn’t really help either team, so my basic Tottenham vs. Dortmund prediction is that it could be a lively and high-scoring affair. Especially once the first goal of the game has been scored.
The statistics show just how difficult the task will be for the Bundesliga club. The reigning Europa League champions from London have won all three of their CL home games so far this season and are also the only team in the 36-club premier class that has not conceded a single goal at home.
Tottenham vs. Dortmund prediction AI
While Borussia Dortmund is considered the slight favorite by the best bookmakers, artificial intelligence actually disagrees after evaluating many statistics and data. AI gives the Premier League club a whopping 47.2% chance of winning, which should actually result in fair odds of 2.11. However, because Interwetten is offering odds of 2.70 for a home win, the Tottenham vs. Dortmund AI prediction offers extremely attractive value for a Spurs win. This assessment is further supported by the xG values of 1.72 for the Lilywhites and only 1.34 for the Black and Yellows.
Tottenham – Statistics & current form
For the second year in a row, Tottenham Hotspur Football Club is lagging well behind its own expectations in the Premier League. The Londoners are currently only 14th in the table, seven points behind the European places. However, their form has been heading in completely the wrong direction for several weeks, with coach Thomas Frank’s side winning only one of their last eight competitive games since their last appearance in the UEFA Champions League. They have recently suffered three defeats in a row, including an embarrassing 2-1 home defeat at the weekend against relegation candidates West Ham United, which marked a low point at the national level.
Tottenham lives for the European Cup
Similar to last season, when winning the Europa League title at least partially overshadowed their failure in the league, the capital club are showing a completely different side to themselves in international competition in 2025/26. Eleven points from six Champions League games is a very respectable haul. Especially when you consider that their only defeat came against reigning champions Paris St. Germain (3-5).
On closer inspection, however, the impressive haul, which currently puts them in eleventh place and at least guarantees them a place in the playoffs, must be put into perspective in that the English side have been lucky with their schedule. All points were earned against Slavia Prague, Bodö/Glimt, FC Copenhagen, Villarreal, and Monaco. The highest-ranked of these clubs in the Champions League standings is currently Monaco in 19th place.
In view of this, I would only pay limited attention to the encouraging statistics to date, although nine points from three home games with 8-0 goals and a total of 23 consecutive international home games across all competitions without defeat cannot, of course, be completely ignored.
Nevertheless, in my view, the poor form and the fact that Micky van de Ven, an important defender, is suspended and will have to watch from the sidelines, outweigh the positives.
Dortmund – Statistics & current form
Borussia Dortmund has one major strength this season: they win games without really being able to explain afterwards how they scored at least one more goal than their opponents in 90 minutes. The best example of this was Saturday’s 3-2 win against FC St. Pauli. First, the Black and Yellows completely unnecessarily squandered a lead, before Maxi Beier was fouled in the penalty area shortly before the end and a penalty was awarded only after reviewing the VAR images. Emre Can converted confidently, giving his team five, six and seven points from their first three Bundesliga games in the 2026 calendar year.
Dortmund wants to skip the intermediate round
Despite the good haul and a satisfactory second place in the standings, there is clearly something amiss at Borussia. Some of the top players are not performing at their best, and as a collective, BVB (at least in the Bundesliga) is not impressing with brilliant attacking football, but rather with a pragmatic, boring style of play. If the positive results give way to disappointing results in the near future, the mood among the 2024 Champions League finalists could quickly turn negative.
This makes it all the more important for coach Niko Kovac’s team to hold on to their dream in the Champions League and, ideally, secure a place in the top 8 with a win in London. If they do, they will face Inter Milan in a highlight final next Wednesday. Looking ahead to Tuesday evening, there are certainly compelling arguments in favor of BVB in the match between Tottenham and Dortmund.
With 19 goals in six games, the Black and Yellows have the most dangerous offense in the Champions League, alongside PSG. After the winter break, Adeyemi and Co. also scored three times in each of their three matches. Reason enough to bet on the Ruhr Valley team scoring the first goal of the game in England’s capital.
Tottenham – Dortmund Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
These clubs have already met six times in European competition. While Dortmund won both matches in the 2015/16 UEFA Europa League, Tottenham leads the H2H with a flawless record of four wins from four matches in the Champions League. Only against Real Madrid has BVB lost more games in the Champions League than against their upcoming opponents. Also interesting: Dortmund have lost ten of their 14 CL away games on the island so far. In the current season, they lost 4-1 away to Manchester City. However, this has been BVB’s only defeat in the 2025/26 CL season so far.
Tottenham – Dortmund Tip
In the Tottenham vs. Dortmund prediction, both teams still have realistic chances of advancing directly to the round of 16. To do so, they need two good results on the last two matchdays. Accordingly, there is a lot at stake in the direct duel at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Tuesday evening.
I basically agree with the bookmakers, who see BVB as slight favorites. Although Spurs have won all three of their CL home games so far, including clean sheets, they have not yet faced an opponent of the caliber of the 2024 finalists.
Tottenham have won only one of their last eight competitive games and have lost their last three in a row. On top of that, they now face Dortmund, who have the joint-best attack in the Champions League. Nineteen goals in six games equates to an average of over three goals per match. I therefore think it’s a good idea to bet on Tottenham and Dortmund, with the Black and Yellows, who are in better form, taking a 1-0 lead. At Bet-at-home, you’ll find odds of 1.95 for this approach.
