Will the Magpies make another run at the top eight?

Newcastle United naturally wants to go as far as possible in the premier class, but with two matchdays remaining in the league phase, it is “only” in twelfth place in the Champions League table. This means it would have to take the detour via the intermediate round, which all the top teams want to avoid at all costs.

The problem is that the Magpies still have to face defending champions Paris Saint-Germain next week in the final game of the league phase. So if they are to finish in the top eight, Newcastle must win at home against PSV Eindhoven, who are currently two points behind eighth place.

However, PSV Eindhoven, currently in 21st place with eight points, also needs points. Not only do the Boeren want to climb higher in the table, they also want to avoid falling out of the top 24, which would end their 2025/26 season in Europe. Basically, a prediction of a point for the Dutch in Newcastle vs. PSV Eindhoven is by no means out of the question.

After all, Bosz’s team has not lost any of its three CL away games so far (one win, two draws) and even won 4-1 at Liverpool FC. As we expect goals but also see the Magpies, who are strong at home, as having the advantage, we recommend the match combo on the double chance 1X with both teams scoring.

It is clear that betting on a home win for the Magpies is only of limited value. After all, the odds for Newcastle against PSV Eindhoven are just 1.47 at best, which is too low to offer any serious value given the Dutch visitors’ scoring prowess and strength away from home. However, given that PSV has already scored 15 goals in the first six matchdays of the Champions League group stage, we could well imagine a goal fest at St. James’ Park, so a logical alternative would be to bet on over 3.5 goals being scored in this match.

Newcastle vs. PSV Eindhoven Prediction AI

An AI prediction for the match between Newcastle and PSV Eindhoven is virtually impossible, as the odds offered by the top betting providers are almost perfectly in line with the supercomputer’s assessment. This results in a negative expected value from an AI perspective almost across the board. The only exception is the tip for an away win for the Dutch, which can currently be played via the Bwin app at odds of 6.00.

However, with odds of 6.00, we not only have a very risky tip, but also a tip that is only marginally in the value range. If the odds fall below the 6 mark, the positive expected value would even be a thing of the past. The AI’s recommendation is therefore to only place this bet if odds increases are expected or if odds boosts are offered for a surprise win by the Boeren.

Newcastle – Statistics & current form

Newcastle United continues to struggle overall to build on its strong 2024/25 season, which ended in fifth place in the Premier League. However, after 22 league games, the Magpies have climbed back up to eighth place and are only two points behind fifth place. In addition, Eddie Howe’s team is still in contention in the FA Cup.

Only in the EFL Cup did their run come to an end last week against Manchester City (0-2), before they also failed to score in the league against bottom-of-the-table Wolverhampton (0-0) at the weekend, which was a corresponding setback. Before the crucial home game against current third-placed Aston Villa, the team will be looking to boost their confidence in the UEFA Champions League.

Newcastle with personnel problems in defense

Basically, Newcastle are hot favorites to win at home against PSV Eindhoven, especially since NUFC have won their last two Champions League home games without conceding a single goal. Nevertheless, one of the best offenses in the competition is coming to St. James’ Park, where the defense will be put to the test.

The fact that several regular defenders are currently unavailable makes the situation even more difficult for the northeast English side, which is why we consider it very unlikely that the Magpies will be able to keep a clean sheet in their third consecutive CL home game. After all, they only managed to do so twice in their first 13 home games in the competition.

PSV Eindhoven – Statistics & current form

PSV Eindhoven is having an extremely convincing season overall. In the Eredivisie, after just 19 league games, they already have an incredible 16-point lead over second place, thanks to a surreal 52 out of a possible 57 points. In addition, the Boeren are still in contention in the cup and, as things stand, would also qualify for the knockout stages of the Champions League.

However, the latter aspect is purely a snapshot. After the tricky away game at St. James’ Park, they will face FC Bayern Munich at home on the final matchday of the league phase next Wednesday. If the Dutch team only manage to get zero or perhaps even just one point from both games, it is highly unlikely that they will still finish in the top 24. After all, they are currently just two points ahead of 25th place.

PSV Eindhoven are dangerous in front of goal and strong away from home

Against this backdrop, the Red and Whites ultimately have no choice but to play for victory in the northeast of England. The very offensively minded team definitely has what it takes. Although they have conceded eleven goals in six games in the Champions League group stage at the top European level, they have already scored 15 goals, making them the fifth-best offense in the competition.

As already suggested by the AI, the odds for an away win for the Boeren at Newcastle against PSV Eindhoven are therefore interesting, especially since PSV already recorded a spectacular 4-1 away win at Anfield Road and has remained completely unbeaten in all three Champions League away games of the 2025/26 season (one win, two draws).

Newcastle – PSV Eindhoven Head-to-head record

Head to head: 1 – 1 – 2

Four international competitive matches have already taken place between the two teams, who first clashed in the Champions League in 1997/98. At that time, both the first and second legs went to PSV Eindhoven, who, however, came up short in the quarterfinals of the 2003/04 UEFA Cup. After a 1–1 draw in the Netherlands, the Magpies progressed with a 2–1 home win in front of their home crowd.

Newcastle – PSV Eindhoven Tip

We also see the Magpies as favorites. However, the fact that the betting odds for Newcastle against PSV Eindhoven are so clearly in favor of the northeast English team means that there is no value in betting on a home win for Howe’s team.

After all, the visitors from the Netherlands have been particularly impressive away from home so far, celebrating a 4-1 away win at Liverpool FC, among others. The Boeren’s 15 goals scored are only surpassed by four of the 20 teams in the current top 20 of the CL table. This home game will certainly not be a walk in the park for NUFC.

On the one hand, we still expect the Magpies to pick up a point, but on the other hand, PSV should also have a very good chance of at least scoring an away goal at St. James’ Park. For this reason, we recommend betting on Newcastle vs. PSV Eindhoven with a double chance 1X and goals on both sides.