Big points up for grabs at the Stadio Olimpico
AS Roma and VfB Stuttgart will be aiming to break into the top eight in the remaining two matchdays of the Europa League. This would mean direct entry into the round of 16 and thus the elimination of two intense playoff matches in February. The clubs in question are currently ranked tenth and ninth, which inevitably highlights the immense importance of Thursday evening’s direct duel at the Olympic Stadium in Italy’s capital.
Given that both teams are aware of their opponents’ strengths and, with only five goals conceded in the first six matchdays, are keen to avoid falling behind, I expect a rather tough encounter with few goals throughout the game.
On paper, the home side are the favorites, but they have not been able to perform as expected at home in this phase of the league so far. Coach Gian Piero Gasperini’s team lost two of their three EL home games. The Romans narrowly lost both against Viktoria Plzen (1-2) and OSC Lille (0-1). They also lost their most recent home game in the Coppa Italia a week ago, going down 2-3 to Torino FC in their own stadium.
The visitors from Swabia therefore have no reason to hide in the “eternal city.” After all, Hoeneß’s team has lost only two of its last 13 competitive games. The start of the 2026 calendar year went very well with statement victories in Leverkusen and at home against Bayer Leverkusen, although the late 1:1 draw against Union Berlin at the weekend dealt a small blow to the fourth-placed Bundesliga team. Nevertheless, I see value in betting on the DNB 2 odds between AS Roma and VfB Stuttgart.
Finally, however, back to my initial assumption of a match with a maximum of two goals. There are good arguments to support this. For example, the fact that Undav, Leweling, and Co. have only scored in one of their three Europa League away games so far in 2025/26 – in the 4-0 win at Go Ahead Eagles. Meanwhile, they suffered defeats without scoring at Fenerbahce (0-1) and in Basel (0-2).
Also exciting: In seven of the Giallorossi’s last eleven competitive games, the under 2.5 would have been correct. In Serie A, the capital club continues to have the best defense of all 20 clubs, conceding only twelve goals in total. All these factors are the reason why the AS Roma vs. VfB Stuttgart prediction of a maximum of two goals after 90 minutes remains my preferred betting option. However, at the expense of the odds, the under 1.5 (1st half) option could also be considered.
AS Roma – VfB Stuttgart Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
AS Roma and VfB Stuttgart have never faced each other in a direct duel in European competition. However, the Romans’ last match against a Bundesliga team is not so long ago. In January 2025, the Romans won 2-0 at home against Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa League. Stuttgart’s record against Italian teams is not particularly positive. The Swabians have won only two of a total of 13 international appearances against Serie A representatives (2-4-7). However, this will not have a significant impact on the betting odds ahead of the interesting duel between AS Roma and VfB Stuttgart.
AS Roma – VfB Stuttgart Tip
In the last three matchdays in the UEFA Europa League, exactly five clubs achieved the maximum haul of nine points. Two of these clubs will face each other in a decisive match on Thursday evening at the late kick-off time of 9:00 p.m. Roma and Stuttgart still have their sights set firmly on the top eight, but they must avoid defeat in their clash with their respective neighbors in the table.
Because there is so much at stake at the Stadio Olimpico, both teams are in good form and have looked solid defensively for much of the season, I am leaning towards a low-scoring encounter. I am therefore betting on under 2.5 goals at top odds of 2.00.
