Hamburg City Championship Part 2
19:5 shots on goal, 5:2 corner kicks and xG values of 1.44 to 0.35 – these were the statistics from the first leg, all of which favored FC St. Pauli, who deservedly took all three points from the Volkspark with a 2:0 triumph, winning the first part of the Hamburg City Championship.
On Friday evening, the return leg is on the agenda as part of the 19th matchday in the Bundesliga. On paper, the odds for St. Pauli and HSV are slightly lower for the hosts, although there is logically no question of the home team being the clear favorites. Instead, the derby promises to be hard-fought, exciting, and likely to be low-scoring.
There are numerous arguments in favor of a St. Pauli vs. HSV prediction of few goals in the game. First and foremost, it should be noted that, in terms of goals scored, the two weakest attacking lines in German soccer are facing each other. But that’s not all, because the city rivals also occupy 17th and 18th place in the xG ranking. Hamburger SV is also the team with the lowest scoring rate of all 18 teams, while the “Boys in Brown” have the fewest shots on goal in the league. The first goal on Friday evening at the Millerntor could therefore set the tone for the rest of the game.
St. Pauli vs. HSV Prediction AI
First of all, artificial intelligence supports my assumption that it will probably be a low-scoring game. The xG figures add up to a total of 2.16, which is the lowest of all the matchups on the second matchday of the second half of the Bundesliga season. Somewhat surprisingly, however, the AI gives Hamburger SV the slightly better chances of winning. With a calculated probability of victory of 36.5%, there is even value to be found in the St. Pauli vs. HSV AI prediction for the visitors to win. This brings a peak of 3.00 at Bet-at-home.
St. Pauli – Statistics & current form
FC St. Pauli is currently playing its second-worst Bundesliga season in its history with only twelve points. Due to last weekend’s late defeat at Borussia Dortmund, when they initially came back from a two-goal deficit and were dreaming of a point until injury time, the Kiezkickers fell back to last place in the standings. Eleven of their last 14 Bundesliga matches have been lost, which is at least two more than any other first division team since the fourth matchday. The figures are therefore worrying and much more sobering than the performances in many cases would suggest.
Can St. Pauli rely on their defense at home?
The biggest weakness of coach Alexander Blessin’s team remains the offense, which has only scored 16 goals and is also at the bottom of the league-wide ranking. In the only two competitive games so far in the 2026 calendar year, however, it was more of a vulnerable defense that prevented them from gaining points. Given the lack of threat in attack, the primary goal for the “Boys in Brown” must be to be more stable at the back and concede fewer goals.
Over the entire season, they have been more successful at home than away. Although seven points from just seven home games is still below average, only the matches against Gladbach (0-4) and Hoffenheim (0-3) were lost by more than one goal. In five of the seven home games mentioned, the under 3.5 would have been successful.
Also interesting: since their promotion in 2024, Pauli have picked up ten out of a possible twelve points at home against promoted teams from the 2nd division. Three wins in the last four Friday evening games are another indication that I see the betting odds on the double chance 1X between St. Pauli and HSV as the basis for my final match combo.
HSV – Statistics & current form
Similar to FC St. Pauli, Hamburger Sportverein also has a game in hand. Without this, the Rothosen currently have 17 points to their name. Their lead over the relegation spot is therefore only four points. The promoted team had certainly imagined a different start to the new soccer year. The bitter defeat in Freiburg (1-2 after leading 1-0) was followed last week by a 0-0 draw at home against Borussia Mönchengladbach. The performance was good, but, as so often this season, it was a lack of efficiency that thwarted the superior HSV.
Hamburger SV is the weakest away team in the league
It would be so important for the former Bundesliga giants to continue to score heavily at home. Away from home, the traditional club is still struggling to get anything going. The North Germans are the only first division team still waiting for their first three points on the road. With a meager two points from eight Bundesliga away games, Königsdorffer and Co. are bottom of the away table. The four goals scored in opposing stadiums are also the lowest in Germany’s top soccer league.
Given the additional fact that Polzin’s team has recently gone four games without a win and has also failed to celebrate three points on five consecutive Friday evenings, I am deliberately refraining from recommending the odds on the away team ahead of the Hamburg city derby between St. Pauli and HSV. Instead, I am leaning more towards the home team and, above all, towards few goals being scored during the game. It is also a fact that HSV has only scored in four of eight Bundesliga away games and has never scored more than one goal.
I think it is unlikely that this will change in the derby. I can therefore well imagine making a prediction of under 2.5 goals or, alternatively, a 0-0 score at half-time in the St. Pauli vs. HSV game.
St. Pauli – HSV Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
FC St. Pauli is facing a double first on Friday evening. For the first time ever, the Kiezkickers could defeat their rivals from the Elbe in the upper house in front of their home crowd. There have been eight attempts to date, with four draws and four defeats for Pauli.
Apart from that, the former World Cup winners have never managed to win both home and away games against Hamburger SV in a single season. After the 2-0 victory on the second matchday at the Volkspark mentioned in the introduction, this could now happen at the Millerntor!
St. Pauli – HSV Tip
On Friday evening, the German soccer world will be watching Hamburg with bated breath as St. Pauli and HSV face each other in the city derby. It’s a matter of survival for both teams, with the Rothosen able to pull eight points clear of the “Boys in Brown” in the standings with an away win at the Millerntor.
However, in my opinion, it’s not a particularly good idea to bet on a win for Polzin’s team. After all, Hamburger SV is the only team in the Bundesliga still waiting for its first three points away from home and has managed a meager four goals in eight away games.
In general, given the modest offensive statistics of both teams, a spectacular game is not to be expected. Under bets can all be well argued, especially since the teams with the fewest goals and lowest xG values are facing each other. Nevertheless, I see minimal advantages for the home team and have therefore decided on the St. Pauli vs. HSV tip of 1X & Under 3.5. I’m playing the 1.78 from Bet-at-home with six fictitious units.
