Will the Broncos continue to roll with their backup?
Home advantage or backup disadvantage – that is the question in our Broncos vs. Patriots tip for the AFC Championship Game in the NFL. The Denver Broncos have to cope with the loss of their starting quarterback Bo Nix, who broke his ankle against the Bills.
This will put even more pressure on Denver’s defense on Sunday night. Although it is one of the best in the entire NFL, the Bills have already shown that it can be vulnerable, especially on the ground. They racked up 183 rushing yards last weekend, and the Pats will have taken note.
However, it is questionable whether New England can reproduce that. They averaged 128.9 rushing yards per game in the regular season, but their opponents were often weak. In addition, many of the yards came from big plays by Treveyon Henderson.
If the Pats manage to rack up well over 120 rushing yards, we see them having the advantage against the struggling Broncos. However, if the Broncos defense can put as much pressure on Drake Maye as the Texans defense did, it could be a very close match. In any case, our prediction for Broncos vs. Patriots is a defensive game that will be decided by big plays from the defense.
Kick-off for the AFC Finals is on Sunday at 9:00 p.m. in Denver. The game will again be broadcast live on RTL and on the streaming service DAZN.
In addition to betting on the Pats, the under points are definitely the betting target in this matchup. Both defenses allowed less than 19 points in the regular season, and we consider the scheduled 42.0 to be a little too high. The Broncos defense will also be a little more fired up to compensate for the loss of Bo Nix.
Denver Broncos – New England Patriots Head-to-head comparison / H2H statistics
This matchup last took place in Denver almost exactly two years ago, with the Pats winning 26-23. At that time, however, the QB duel was still Wilson vs. Zappe, and both teams were light years away from having strong defenses.
The head-to-head comparison is therefore only of peripheral interest. Instead, Denver’s home advantage is more significant, as the Broncos are 9-1 at home this season (including playoffs). On the other hand, however, the loss of Bo Nix must also be taken into account, as he is a major weakening factor.
With three touchdown passes and 29 rushing yards of his own, he was one of the big pillars in the recent game against the Bills. His backup, Jarrett Stidham, is not only significantly less experienced, but he is also not considered a great runner. The last time he gained more than 10 rushing yards in a game was over three years ago (January 2023 against the 49ers).
Denver Broncos – New England Patriots Tip
How will Jarrett Stidham perform? This question will likely be the main focus of this playoff evening on Sunday. Only with an impressive performance from the backup quarterback will the Broncos have a realistic chance. However, if he plays well (which is not out of the question), it could be another thriller.
This is thanks to the Broncos’ rock-solid defense, which also leads us to recommend betting on under 42.0 total points in Broncos vs. Pats. The Pats’ defense has also been impressive in the playoffs so far, allowing only 9.5 points on average.
As an alternative tip, we also see a player bet on a Pats player. What Kayshon Boutte pulled off against the Texans recently was world class, so a TD tip on Boutte at very high odds (up to 3.45) is definitely worth considering.
