Will the well-rested Djoker make it to the semifinals?
With his 400th singles victory in a Grand Slam tournament, Novak Djokovic advanced to the round of 16 on Saturday with a 3-0 win over Botic van de Zandschulp, despite minor problems and a temporary medical timeout. The Serbian superstar benefited from Jakub Mensik having to throw in the towel without a fight, allowing Djoker to advance to the quarterfinals with a bye. The fact that the 38-year-old veteran now had a full three days to recover means that we clearly favor the ten-time Australian Open winner to advance in the match between Lorenzo Musetti and Novak Djokovic.
Lorenzo Musetti certainly sold himself dearly and flexed his muscles in the round of 16, sending top 10 player Taylor Fritz (ATP 9) home with a clean 3-0 victory in just 124 minutes, winning 84 percent of points on his first serve and 69 percent on his second without dropping a single service game. However, he has lost nine of his ten previous matches against Djokovic, including both encounters in 2025. At the Miami Masters in particular, the Serb completely overwhelmed the Italian, winning 2-0 (6-2, 6-2). We don’t think the 23-year-old will win more than one set, which is why we are even giving the exceptional Serbian player a handicap of -1.5 sets in our tip.
It is certainly conceivable that the world number five from Tuscany will once again serve excellently and make life difficult for Djokovic, especially in the first sets. However, Nole has always started his matches excellently in the tournament and has not dropped more than three games in the first set on his way to the quarterfinals. A very reasonable alternative is therefore to bet on the 38-year-old Serb winning the first set against the Italian as well.
Lorenzo Musetti – Novak Djokovic Head-to-head record
Head to head: 1:9
The two players have already faced each other ten times, with Novak Djokovic clearly ahead in the head-to-head comparison with nine wins. Only at the 2023 Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters did the Serbian Lorenzo Musetti defeat him 1:2 in a close match over 32 games (6:4, 5:7, and 4:6). Since then, the 24-time Grand Slam champion has won six matches in a row, including both encounters in the 2025 season.
Lorenzo Musetti – Novak Djokovic Tip
All in all, our prediction for Lorenzo Musetti vs. Novak Djokovic is clearly in favor of the Serb advancing. Although the Italian is now ranked number five in the world, he has achieved his greatest successes on clay and has only impressed on hard court at the 2025 US Open, where he reached a Grand Slam quarterfinal on this surface for the first time. Down Under, the 23-year-old won only three singles matches in total in his first four appearances in the men’s singles – a tally he has more than doubled with four wins on his way to this year’s quarterfinals.
The young Italian certainly has the potential to trouble Djoker. However, we don’t think the player from Tuscany will win more than one set. It therefore makes sense to give the Serbian superstar a handicap of -1.5 sets, as he had three days to recover after his victory in the third round and a bye in the round of 16.
