Will Bayer overcome the Villarreal curse?

A “final” to remain in the premier class is coming up for the hosts at Leverkusen against Villarreal, and Tip plus current odds are served up by Wettbasis! Bayer has had a disastrous start to 2026 with three defeats in the Champions League and Bundesliga, as well as a laborious 1-0 win against the sporting lightweight from Bremen in the dress rehearsal.

The recent defeat in Piraeus also meant that they were unable to book their place in the Champions League knockout stages early – instead, they are now in danger of being eliminated. However, on paper, their upcoming opponents are perfect for a home win.

The visiting “Submarino Amarillo” has not yet made an appearance in the top flight this season. In fact, the Spaniards are one of three teams in the 36-team top flight still waiting for their first three points. Worse still, six of seven CL league games have ended in defeat for the 2021 Europa League winners.

However, the Spaniards are not a good match for Bayer: Leverkusen has not won any of the four duels and only one did not end in defeat! In view of this and the hosts’ recent poor form, the prediction of an away win – including a handicap of plus 1.5 goals for the visitors – seems promising for the match between Leverkusen and Villarreal.

Leverkusen vs. Villarreal Prediction AI

Our artificial intelligence has combed through the numerous odds surrounding the match and compared them with its calculated probabilities of victory for the two teams. The value alarm in the odds jumped to double chance in favor of the visitors.

AI estimates the probability that the Iberians will once again not lose to Werkself at 42.9 percent. This value tops the odds available at Interwetten for a draw or an away win of 2.40 (as of 01/26/2026, 10:11 a.m.), which corresponds to a probability of 41.7 percent.

The Leverkusen vs. Villarreal AI prediction therefore includes the double chance in favor of the Spaniards. Additional AI predictions for the final round in the Champions League, such as Bayern’s away game in Eindhoven, can be found by clicking on the AI Champions League tips for matchday 8!

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

Leverkusen has not won in four home games in the Champions League (0-2-2). Only once has the club had a longer run without a win in the Champions League, when it drew five times in a row between December 1997 and November 1999.

The Champions League is also not a good fit for Bayer coach Kasper Hjulmand. The Dane has failed to win any of his six home games in the competition! Instead, he recorded one draw and two defeats with FC Nordsjælland and another two draws and one defeat with Leverkusen.

Another unpleasant fact for him is that his teams conceded 20 goals in these six games, an average of 3.3 per game. Only Mustafa Denizli, Jindrich Trpisovsky, and Vladimír Weiss have played more home games without a win in the Champions League (7 each).

Bayer still searching for form in 2026

The Werkself are also not in good shape at the moment. They have lost three of their four competitive games on the national and international stage since the turn of the year, and their latest victory against Werder in the Bundesliga was only a narrow 1-0 win in front of their own fans. On top of that, Bremen are particularly weak away from home, with only one win from ten away games this season, which is why the three points can only be considered a fulfillment of their duty.

Another factor working against the 2024 champions is their poor home form in the Champions League. Leverkusen are still waiting for their first three points in front of their own fans after three attempts, and only Belgian champions Union St. Gilloise (11) have conceded double-digit goals like Bayer (10).

Will there be goals at both ends between Leverkusen and Villarreal?

In the match between Leverkusen and Villarreal, the betting odds for both sides to score are therefore also recommended. This has been the case in all three of Hjulmand’s team’s home games so far.

Villarreal – Statistics & current form

The team from eastern Spain recorded their last away win against a German team in March 2011, beating their upcoming opponents 3-2. Since then, they have not won any of their five away games against Bundesliga clubs in European competitions (0-3-2).

Another shortcoming in this CL season is their chronically shaky defense, which failed to keep a clean sheet in all seven league games. The weakness of their defense is also evident in the fact that only three teams have conceded more goals in the current edition of the Champions League.

Another area of concern for the club is their toothless attack on the road, which should be taken into account when making a Leverkusen vs. Villarreal prediction. Along with Paphos, Villarreal is the only club in the Champions League still waiting for an away goal after three away games.

Oluwaseyi to lead Villarreal’s attack

To remedy this problem, coach Marcelino is putting his faith in Tani Oluwaseyi. The striker scored in each of his last two Champions League games for the two-time Intertoto Cup winners, against Copenhagen and then Ajax! Now the Canadian could become the first player to score in three consecutive games for the club in this competition.

Villarreal is doing well in La Liga!

What is surprising about the visitors is the contrast between their performance in La Liga and their dismal situation in the Champions League. The visitors are performing much better in the Spanish top flight. Although they have also suffered two defeats in the league recently, against Betis Sevilla and Real Madrid, they are currently in fourth place behind the three inevitable top clubs, Real and Atletico Madrid and FC Barcelona!

Leverkusen – Villarreal Head-to-head record / H2H record

The 1988 UEFA Cup winners and Villarreal are meeting for the fifth time in Europe, with the Spaniards winning three of the last four games and remaining unbeaten overall (3-1-0). All four encounters took place in the Europa League between 2011 and 2016.

Villarreal’s four games against Bayer are the most without defeat against any opponent for the visitors in a major European competition – alongside Dynamo Kyiv with the same record. The only team the runners-up have played more often than Villarreal in European competitions without winning is Manchester United (0-2-4). Regardless, the odds for the upcoming match between Leverkusen and Villarreal point to a win for the hosts.

Leverkusen – Villarreal Tip

Leverkusen is under enormous pressure ahead of its final Champions League group stage match against the Spaniards. Only a win would secure a place in the knockout stages.

However, the home side are in poor form and Bayer have yet to win at home in the Champions League. Villarreal are an even weaker opponent in the Champions League, with no chance of remaining in the competition, but Bayer’s poor form means that this is unlikely to be a walk in the park for them.

On top of that, last season’s fifth-placed team in La Liga is a formidable opponent: the Bundesliga club has yet to beat them, and three of four matches have ended in defeat. In light of this situation, the best bet for the match between Leverkusen and Villarreal is no home win by two or more goals!