Is Jose Mourinho worried about his job?
Somewhere between a change of coach, boos from their own fans, early elimination from the Copa del Rey and defeat in the Spanish Super Cup final, Los Blancos have had a formidable run in the Champions League. The visitors will be looking to cap it all off in the Benfica Lisbon vs. Real Madrid tip.
Alvaro Arbeloa took over after the 2-3 defeat to Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup, but got off to a disastrous start himself. Just like against Barca, the Madrilenians lost 2-3 in the following game against massive underdogs Albacete. However, the mood there has completely changed in the run-up to this Benfica Lisbon vs. Real Madrid prediction.
The visitors have racked up three competitive wins in a row ahead of the final Champions League matchday, possibly shifting the Benfica Lisbon – Real Madrid odds from betting providers with a German license a little bit again.
Additional stories off the pitch can be found by looking at the dugout. Jose Mourinho is under massive pressure at the Scarlet Reds. His counterpart, Alvaro Arbeloa, has great respect for the 63-year-old, having played 122 games under the Portuguese coach for Madrid between 2010 and 2013.
This time, the former student will beat his former teacher – at least that’s our prediction in the Benfica Lisbon vs. Real Madrid tip. At Bet365, we’re going with odds of 2.75 and betting on “Real Madrid to win (HC -1)”.
Benfica Lisbon vs. Real Madrid AI prediction
With so many goals, the Estadio da Luz in Benfica Lisbon can hardly save itself in our artificial AI’s Benfica Lisbon vs. Real Madrid prediction. The AI’s analysis highlights a bet on a high-scoring match with goals on both sides.
Benfica Lisbon – Statistics & current form
The combination of Benfica Lisbon and Jose Mourinho is still performing worse than both sides had hoped for in the run-up to their partnership. At the national level, the Eagles are currently only considered the third-strongest team – paradoxically, even though the team has yet to suffer a defeat (13W, 6D, 0L).
A trophy will be difficult to achieve this season. Jose Mourinho and his team have been eliminated from both national cup competitions. The Portuguese record champions have also suffered several defeats in the Champions League. By the time Benfica Lisbon faced Real Madrid, the home side had already been beaten in five matches (2W).
Four of these five defeats were suffered by the Eagles under the leadership of Jose Mourinho. The 63-year-old is now facing premature dismissal as Benfica coach for the second time. His first spell in Lisbon at the start of his coaching career came to a quick end after only ten competitive games.
Too little goal threat
There is no more room for error. Before the final matchday of the league phase, the hosts are in 29th place in the table with six points and a goal difference of 6:10. A place in the top 24 is only possible if Mourinho wins against his former employer in a surprise victory.
The chances of such a success are slim. The Scarlet Reds’ strengths lie primarily in defense. Benfica defends consistently, successfully preventing the opposition from penetrating dangerous areas for long periods of the game and conceding only 8.78 expected goals – a top 10 value.
However, the defensive structure has not brought the home side enough. After two consecutive Champions League victories, the Portuguese capital club recently suffered a painful 2-0 defeat to Juventus Turin. It was not the first time that Mourinho’s team had offered too little in attack. Only eight teams have created fewer chances than Benfica (9.01 xG) in terms of quality.
Real Madrid – Statistics & current form
In contrast, the Madrid offense is phenomenally strong and can almost never be written off. Kylian Mbappe has been unstoppable this season.
So far, the French star striker has scored 34 goals in just 28 games across all competitions.
He comfortably leads the scoring charts in La Liga (21 goals) and is also the top striker in the current Champions League season (11 goals). In addition, Mbappe put his team on the road to victory early on in each of the last two competitive games with a brace.
Currently, only three teams (Bayern, Arsenal, PSG with 20 each) have scored more goals in the Champions League group stage than the White Ballet from Madrid (19). On average, the visitors have celebrated 2.7 goals in the current competition – and the trend is rising after their crushing victory against AS Monaco (6-1).
More than just brilliant in attack
In terms of expected goals in the Champions League, the Madrid team (17.47 xG) is only slightly behind the German record champions from Munich (18.19 xG). Real Madrid has had an extremely high number of shots (140) in its seven games so far – most of them of high quality (0.13 xG/shot).
To reduce Real Madrid to just their attack would not do justice to the team and, above all, goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois. The Belgian shot-stopper has already prevented 2.6 goals in the Champions League – the third-best record among all goalkeepers. His save rate (86.1 percent) is even good enough for second place.
This must be considered in conjunction with the shots allowed. Although Madrid have conceded 106 shots so far (compared to Benfica’s 72), most of these have been from unfavorable situations for the opposing attackers (0.09 xGA/shot).
Benfica Lisbon – Real Madrid Head-to-head comparison / H2H record
The two world-famous teams have not met in European competition since a quarter-final in the 1964/65 season. Only two friendly matches were played between 2004 and 2012 – both of which saw over 3.5 goals scored. However, not much information can be gleaned from these events for the Benfica Lisbon vs. Real Madrid prediction.
Benfica Lisbon – Real Madrid prediction
It looked like Alvaro Arbeloa was in for a disastrous spell in Madrid. However, the cup defeat to Albacete (2-3) turned out to be a blip. Real Madrid went on to win three competitive games in a row – all by two or more goals.
While the fans were still critical after Arbeloa’s first victory (2-0 vs. Levante), the key players on the pitch won their supporters back with a furious 6-1 victory against Monaco in the Champions League. The nine-time Champions League winners maintained their momentum last weekend, winning 2-0 in a crucial game against Villarreal, who are close behind them in the table.
Of course, Benfica is considered strong at home, and Jose Mourinho also brings his own dynamic to the clash between the Scarlet Reds and the Royals. However, in our view, the Eagles cannot keep up with the Madrilenians this season – especially not at this stage of the season.
