Will Sascha make a big statement?
22-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz has already won the French Open, Wimbledon and the US Open twice each and has a winning percentage of 89 percent at each of these three Grand Slam tournaments. At the Australian Open, however, Carlitos had never made it past the quarterfinals before this year’s edition. Two years ago, he lost to his current opponent in this very round.
It is therefore not out of the question that Carlos Alcaraz will defeat Alexander Zverev and that the world number one will once again be eliminated before the grand final, especially as the German has a particularly good relationship with the hard court Grand Slam Down Under and has won 16 of his last 18 singles matches at Melbourne Park.
It is therefore quite possible that the Spaniard’s dream of becoming the youngest player ever to complete the career Grand Slam will be shattered once again. After all, the record shows that Sascha knows exactly how to play the world number one from Murcia in order to be successful. The German has won six of his twelve matches against Carlos Alcaraz. We expect another closely contested match, in which a decision in three straight sets is not very likely. The risk of a tiebreak is also high, which is why we find the greatest value in betting on over 0.5 tiebreaks in this eagerly awaited semifinal.
From a purely mathematical point of view, we believe it would also be entirely reasonable to bet on a victory for the German superstar, who was in the grand final here Down Under just a year ago. The fact that Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev odds of 5.10 are being offered for the Hamburg native to win means that even a 20 percent probability of winning results in a positive expected value. And Sascha can confidently be given that 20 percent. In fact, it’s likely to be significantly more, as he has won 50 percent of all his matches against Carlitos so far.
Carlos Alcaraz – Alexander Zverev Head-to-head comparison / H2H statistics
Head to head: 6:6
The two athletes have already faced each other twelve times, and the record clearly shows that Alexander Zverev definitely has a valid chance against the world number one, as the head-to-head record is even with six wins each. The most recent duel in the semifinals of the 2025 Western & Southern Open went to Carlos Alcaraz. At the Australian Open, however, the German defeated the Spaniard 3:1 (6:1, 6:3, 6:7 and 6:4) in the quarterfinals in 2024.
Carlos Alcaraz – Alexander Zverev Tip
The fact that the betting odds of the best bookmakers are so clearly in favor of Carlos Alcaraz against Alexander Zverev makes it all the more interesting from a mathematical point of view to bet that Sascha Carlitos can defeat him, just as he did two years ago at the Australian Open. Six of the twelve previous encounters have gone to the Hamburg native, who has won 16 of his last 18 singles matches at Melbourne Park and most recently did not drop a single service game against Learner Tien (ATP 29), who had previously eliminated Daniil Medvedev 3-0.
However, the Spanish superstar also serves excellently, so it is entirely realistic that in a closely contested match, there will be at least one set in which both opponents win all six service games before going to a tiebreak. Accordingly, the prediction that there will be more than 0.5 tiebreaks in this match between Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev is very popular.
