Will the Nerazzurri get their revenge for the first leg?
While Inter Milan are still in the Coppa Italia, where they are in a good position to reach the final after Tuesday evening’s 0-0 draw with Como 1907, the Rossoneri were knocked out of the cup competition in the round of 16 at the beginning of December.
AC Milan now only have the league title to play for, but with a ten-point gap to leaders Inter, that is no longer very likely. Nevertheless, if AC Milan beat Inter Milan at home, as predicted, Massimiliano Allegri’s men would reduce the gap to seven points.
Not only did the Rossoneri win the first leg against their city rivals, they have also remained unbeaten in six consecutive Derby della Madonnina matches (four wins, two draws). However, since Inter lost the first leg 1-0 at the shared Stadio San Siro, the Nerazzurri have been virtually unbeatable in Serie A.
FC Internazionale are now unbeaten in 15 consecutive league games, picking up 43 out of a possible 45 points. However, this is not just a clash between two archrivals, but also between two effective defenses. Inter have conceded only 21 goals in 27 Serie A games, while AC Milan have conceded just 20. Our AC Milan vs. Inter Milan prediction is therefore for under 2.5 goals.
The Nerazzurri in particular have been almost impenetrable at the back, keeping a clean sheet in eleven of their last 15 league games. AC Milan are similarly impressive defensively. The Rossoneri have not won two home games in a row (one draw, one defeat) and suffered their first defeat since the first matchday in their recent 0-1 loss to Parma. However, Allegri’s team has not conceded more than one goal per league game in any of its last twelve Serie A matches.
AC Milan – Inter Milan Head-to-head record
Head to head: 83 – 71 – 91
The Derby della Madonnina has been played a total of 245 times, with Inter Milan leading the city derby between the two top clubs from the Italian fashion capital with 91 wins.
Recently, however, the Rossoneri have caught up significantly. AC Milan not only won the first leg 1–0, but has also not lost any of its last six competitive games against its big city rival (four wins, two draws).
AC Milan – Inter Milan Tip
On the one hand, the Nerazzurri are in impressive form and have gone 15 league games unbeaten (14 wins, one draw). On the other hand, the leaders’ last defeat was a 1-0 loss in the first leg of the Derby della Madonnina.
Against this backdrop, we would not rule out another victory for the Rossoneri, who have not lost to “La Beneamata” in six city derbies (four wins, two draws), in AC Milan vs. Inter Milan. We are therefore steering clear of the three-way system, which may offer attractive odds but depends on too many contingencies, meaning that there is no value to be found in the odds.
We assume that the 246th Derby della Madonnina in history will be decided defensively. It is quite possible that, as in the first leg, which the Rossoneri won 1-0, a single goal will decide the outcome. Accordingly, we find a lot of value in betting that a maximum of two goals will be scored at San Siro.
