Can St. Pauli continue to distance itself from the relegation zone?

For many, FC St. Pauli was considered a hot candidate for relegation early on in the season. While it did indeed look, especially in the first half of the season, as if the Kiezkickers’ Bundesliga adventure would come to an abrupt end after two seasons, Blessin’s team has recently developed into the team of the moment in the German top flight. In the last four matchdays, the Hamburg team has celebrated as many victories (three) as in the first 20 games.

For the first time since the 10th matchday, the “Boys in Brown” have left the bottom three places in the standings and, as things stand, can look forward to staying up. On Sunday, the cult club from the Reeperbahn is determined to follow up on this, although a potential tip for a home win between St. Pauli and Frankfurt is, of course, associated with a great deal of risk.

This is primarily because SGE has also stabilized significantly recently. Under Albert Riera, they have picked up seven out of a possible twelve points from four games. Their only defeat was a 3-2 loss in Munich. Thanks to an important 2-0 home win against SC Freiburg last week, the Hessians have moved up to seventh place in the table and are once again firmly focused on the Europa League.

I also tend to favor the visitors from the Main metropolis in this eagerly awaited encounter. Nevertheless, it would be too risky for me to place a bet on the three-way market.

St. Pauli vs. Frankfurt Prediction AI

The artificial intelligence goes a little further in its St. Pauli vs. Frankfurt AI prediction. On the one hand, the supercomputer sees SGE relatively clearly ahead in terms of xG values (1.37 vs. 1.01). On the other hand, this assessment leads to an almost 46% probability of victory in favor of Riera’s team. Converted, the fair odds for an away win would be 2.17. However, Bet-at-home is offering a whopping 2.65 on a win for the Eagles, so according to AI, there is definitely value in this bet.

St. Pauli – Statistics & current form

FC St. Pauli is undoubtedly experiencing its strongest phase of the season at the moment. The Kiezkickers have won three of their last four league games, and for the first time since their promotion in 2024, coach Alexander Blessin’s team has also won two consecutive Bundesliga games. As part of this impressive positive trend, the Hamburg team also prevailed at TSG Hoffenheim (1-0) and at home against VfB Stuttgart (2-1), defeating two opponents from the top four in the table.

Will St. Pauli remain unbeaten at home for the sixth time in a row?

However, the whole truth is that the last two victories were relatively fortunate. In the relegation thriller against Werder Bremen (2-1), an xG value of 0.20 was enough to score two goals. Looking at the match statistics, Pauli might also win last week’s match in Sinsheim in two out of ten cases. With that in mind, I would be cautious about predicting a home win between St. Pauli and Frankfurt on Sunday afternoon.

However, I do believe that Pereira Lage, Irvine, Fujita, and Co. are capable of scoring at least one goal. After all, the “Boys in Brown” have remained unbeaten in their last five Bundesliga home games (3-2-0), scoring a total of seven goals. In four of these five matches, a bet on both teams scoring would have paid off.

Considering that SGE’s away games average 4.75 (!) goals and that in 92% of all cases, a bet on “both teams to score” would have paid off, it’s pretty self-explanatory why the odds of 1.75 on both teams scoring in Sunday’s match between St. Pauli and Frankfurt deserve a place on my list of recommendations.

Frankfurt – Statistics & current form

Albert Riera has now been in charge at Eintracht Frankfurt for just over four weeks, and in relationship terms, one would probably still refer to this as the “getting to know you” phase. The Spanish ex-professional continues to polarize opinion. On the one hand, the fans celebrate the fact that he is pursuing a clear plan, which has worked very well at times in the first four matches. On the other hand, there are also critical supporters who accuse Riera of being a show-off, so to speak. The fact is that there is no other coach in the Bundesliga who uploads the match statistics to his Instagram story after a win and points out positive values with arrows he has drawn himself…

Frankfurt’s defense looks much more solid under Riera

Objectively speaking, however, Toppmöller’s successor has managed to stabilize the vulnerable defense within a short period of time. While the team conceded an average of 2.3 goals in the first 20 games of the season, Riera has managed to reduce this figure to one goal per game. In last week’s 2-0 win against Freiburg, SGE even kept a clean sheet for the first time in many weeks. However, I think it is rather unlikely that they will manage to do the same away at Millerntor. After all, the Eagles have not won any of their last six Bundesliga away games and, with a total of 31 goals conceded, they remain the most vulnerable defense on the road.

On a positive note, however, the injury list is slowly clearing. More and more key players are returning to the squad, giving the coach additional options. The return of Jonathan Burkardt to the front line was particularly eagerly awaited. I expect the former Mainz player to be in the starting lineup on Sunday and could therefore well imagine betting on Burkardt as a goalscorer before the kickoff of the St. Pauli vs. Frankfurt match.

St. Pauli – Frankfurt Head-to-head record / H2H balance

Eintracht Frankfurt has a good record against FC St. Pauli. The Hessians have not lost any of their last five Bundesliga games against Hamburg, picking up 13 out of a possible 15 points. Looking back at the last twelve meetings in the German top flight, SGE has also only suffered one defeat (5-6-1). Eintracht even won the last two away games at the Millerntor. The same goes for the first leg at the end of October, which ended 2-0 in favor of the favorites from the Main metropolis.

St. Pauli – Frankfurt Tip

Two teams in good form will face each other on Sunday on the Elbe. FC St. Pauli has picked up nine points from its last four games, leaving the relegation zone for the first time in several months. Eintracht Frankfurt, under Albert Riera, has also lost only one of its last four matches – 3-2 to FC Bayern. Nevertheless, there has been a clear improvement in defense. Nevertheless, I expect both teams to score in this match. Jonathan Burkardt is a potential goalscorer for SGE, who is getting better and better after his long injury break and especially likes to score for his new club away from home.

Given the fairly even odds distribution, I think it’s also a good idea to bet on X2 & Over 1.5 between St. Pauli and Frankfurt.