Will the Bergamaschi upset the next Bundesliga team?

Atalanta Bergamo was not only responsible for Bayer 04 Leverkusen’s only competitive defeat of the entire 2023/24 season when the Werkself was dismantled in the Europa League final (3-0), but the Nerazzurri also eliminated Borussia Dortmund in the round of 16 playoffs with a resounding 4-1 home win, despite losing the first leg 2-0, thus preventing a German classic in the round of 16.

Now, however, the Lombards will face the German record champions. The question of whether there is value in betting on a home win for Atalanta Bergamo against Bayern is therefore an exciting one.

Looking at Munich’s record, we tend not to think so. FCB has won ten of its last twelve games in the Champions League round of 16 (one draw, one defeat) and currently has a total of seven wins from its last eight games in the premier class (one defeat). However, when predicting Atalanta Bergamo vs. Bayern, it must also be taken into account that “La Dea” is not afraid of big names and brings a lot of offensive power to the table. The Bergamo team should at least be capable of scoring at home. As we would like to avoid the three-way system and expect a high-scoring match, we recommend the combined tip of over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

It could well be a high-scoring affair in Lombardy, because it is not teams like Barcelona or Manchester City, but Munich who have the highest goal ratio of all teams that have played at least five knockout games in the Champions League. The Reds have scored an average of 1.9 goals in knockout games in Europe’s premier competition, while “La Dea” has failed to keep a clean sheet in any of its nine knockout games to date.

Atalanta Bergamo vs. Bayern Prediction AI

AI can well imagine that “La Dea” will be able to upset the next Bundesliga team in the form of the German record champions. In fact, the AI prediction for Atalanta Bergamo vs. Bayern is for a home win for the Nerazzurri, although this is rated at a horrendous 5.00 in the bet365 app. This translates into a 20 percent probability of occurrence. Because AI calculates a 25 percent chance of victory for the Bergamo team, the underdog bet is therefore accompanied by considerable value.

Atalanta Bergamo – Statistics & current form

Atalanta Bergamo is the only Serie A club to have made it to the round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League. The Nerazzurri now want to fly the Italian flag high, but given their recent results, this will be a mammoth task. After a 4-1 home win over Borussia Dortmund in the playoffs, which overturned a 2-0 away defeat, the Lombardy-based side went three games without a win (two draws, one defeat).

In all three games against Sassuolo (1-2), Lazio Rome (2-2), and Udinese Calcio (2-2), they conceded two goals, which shows how much they are missing not only injured homegrown player Giorgio Scalvini but also midfield stabilizer Éderson these days. Nevertheless, “La Dea” has a strong record against German teams, losing only three of their 13 international competitive matches to date (seven wins, three draws).

Is Atalanta Bergamo’s defense not good enough?

Unlike the AI, however, we see no value in betting on Atalanta Bergamo to win the first leg against Bayern. “La Dea” has been too lackluster in recent games and has always fallen short in the past when facing top European teams in the knockout stages of the Champions League. The Nerazzurri have lost six of their last seven knockout games in the Champions League (one win). They have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last nine games.

What’s more, the Lombards have conceded a total of 18 goals in their nine Champions League knockout games – an average of two goals per game. No wonder, then, that Tipico is offering odds of just 1.40 on Bayern scoring more than 1.5 goals at the New Balance Arena.

Bayern – Statistics & current form

FC Bayern Munich is facing some decisive weeks. With an 11-point lead over second place in the Bundesliga, the men from the Isar have secured their place in the semifinals of the DFB Cup for the first time in six years, where a difficult away game at Bayer Leverkusen awaits them in mid-April. Before that, however, they are looking to get their Champions League campaign back on track.

However, the tournament draw has not been too kind to the second-placed team in the league. Although the Reds won seven of their eight games in the league phase (one defeat), they will face either Real Madrid or Manchester City in a possible quarterfinal, before defending champions Paris Saint-Germain, club world champions Chelsea or Premier League champions Liverpool could await them in the semifinals. But first, they need to get past Bergamo, which hardly anyone doubts they will do.

Bayern rarely have problems in the round of 16

The German record champions have rarely put a foot wrong in the Champions League round of 16. In this round alone, FCB won ten of its last twelve games (one draw, one defeat), although that one defeat was an away loss in Italy. However, the 0-1 defeat at Lazio Rome had no consequences, as Munich won the return leg at the Allianz Arena 3-0.

Also worth noting: the Reds played half an hour of that defeat with ten men. Normally, the club from the Isar does not go without scoring. No team averages as many goals per game (1.9) in the Champions League knockout stages as Bayern, with Harry Kane standing out. The Briton has played in 33 Champions League games for Munich and has been involved in an incredible 33 goals (27 goals, six assists) – more than any other player in the competition since the start of the 2023/24 season.

Atalanta Bergamo – Bayern Head-to-head record

Head to head: 0 – 0 – 0

The two teams have never faced each other in a competitive international match before. For Atalanta Bergamo, this is their 14th competitive European match against a Bundesliga representative, with the Nerazzurri losing only three of their previous 13 games (seven wins, three draws).

Bayern, on the other hand, have progressed in four of their last five knockout rounds against Serie A clubs in the Champions League. However, the only exception was the quarter-final against Inter Milan in the 2024/25 season (aggregate score: 3:4).

Atalanta Bergamo – Bayern Tip

The fact that the top betting providers’ odds for Atalanta Bergamo vs. Bayern are so clearly in Munich’s favor makes it impossible, in our opinion, to bet on the favorites. On the one hand, the Bergamo team is always capable of surpassing themselves and brings a lot of offensive power to the table. On the other hand, FCB is by no means doomed to defeat in Lombardy.

The Reds still have the second leg at the Allianz Arena up their sleeve, for which a draw would already be a good starting position. Incidentally, according to the AI’s assessment, the odds for tip 2 would have to rise to at least 1.85 in order to generate even a very small positive expected value.

Nevertheless, the AI also expects a high-scoring match and calculates an expected goals value of 1.19 for Bergamo and 1.94 for Munich. Accordingly, the prediction for Atalanta Bergamo vs. Bayern is that not only will both teams score in the first leg, but that there will also be at least three goals in total.