Werkself without a chance against the PL leaders?

Arsenal Football Club is having a formidable 2025/26 season so far. Ahead of the upcoming round of 16 in the UEFA Champions League, the Gunners actually have a real chance of winning the title in all competitions. The Londoners are leading the Premier League relatively comfortably, have already reached the final of the EFL Cup, and also made it to the quarterfinals of the FA Cup at the weekend.

However, Arsenal FC will have to face their own demons to secure a place in the quarterfinals. The capital club has faced a Bundesliga representative five times in the Champions League round of 16, and the Gunners have been eliminated five times! However, their opponent was always FC Bayern Munich.

This time, the bar is set significantly lower, even though Werkself has successfully worked its way back into this season’s Champions League with decent results at the end of the league phase and in the playoffs. The ultimate test now awaits in the round of 16. Looking at the “Who will advance?” market, the Leverkusen vs. Arsenal prediction can only go in the direction of the PL leaders!

This is also underlined by the Leverkusen vs. Arsenal odds offered on the 1X2 market for the first leg. An away win brings 1.60 at Betano, which in turn results in a 62.5% probability of occurrence.

This assessment comes as no surprise, as the Londoners picked up a maximum haul of 24 points from eight games in the league phase, while Bayer 04 only managed half that tally. Individually, the Gunners are also significantly stronger. Added to this is their outstanding strength from set pieces, which will undoubtedly cause problems for the 2024 German champions.

Leverkusen vs. Arsenal AI prediction

According to the Leverkusen vs. Arsenal AI prediction, no other first leg of the UEFA Champions League round of 16 on Tuesday or Wednesday will see fewer goals than at the BayArena. At least that’s what the xG values suggest, which add up to exactly 2.50 goals.

In particular, the 0.83 xG for the Bundesliga club is a clear indication that artificial intelligence perceives the Londoners’ defensive strength as a clear bargaining chip. Nevertheless, the probability of victory calculated by the AI is relatively well below the 62.5% mentioned above, so that – with a little courage to take risks – one might even consider betting on the double chance 1X.

Leverkusen – Statistics & current form

After two extremely successful Bundesliga seasons, which were crowned with the championship (+ cup victory) in 2023/24 and the runner-up title in 2024/25, the Werkself had to contend with a major upheaval in the summer. Numerous key players such as Wirtz, Xhaka, and Tah left the club, as did the architect of its success, Xabi Alonso.

However, expectations in the pharmaceutical city were only slightly lowered, which is why a slight feeling of dissatisfaction is currently creeping into Leverkusen. Currently sixth in the Bundesliga, the team needs a strong finish to qualify for the top flight again in 2026/27. In the cup, where FC Bayern awaits in the semifinals, and in the Champions League against Arsenal, it would also be a big surprise if they were to advance to the next round…

Is Leverkusen frozen in awe?

The recent results are also sobering. Coach Kasper Hjulmand’s team has won only one of its last five competitive games. At the weekend, they failed to hold on to a three-goal lead in a crucial match in Freiburg, revealing defensive weaknesses that are not quite as glaring in the Champions League, at least. Bayer 04 has kept a clean sheet three times in a row in the Champions League, including in both playoff games against Olympiacos Piraeus.

Not least because of this, I am convinced that the Bundesliga club will once again opt for a deep-lying and reactive approach on Wednesday evening in order to take the best possible result back to London. I therefore expect a rather tough match with few goals and am therefore a clear advocate of putting the odds on X2 & Under 3.5 on the betting slip between Leverkusen and Arsenal.

Arsenal – Statistics & current form

Fabian Hürzeler, coach of Brighton in the Premier League, recently caused a stir with his sharp criticism of Arsenal FC. The young head coach criticized the league leaders’ style of play, pointing out that the Londoners primarily define themselves by their strength in set pieces.

At least with the second point, Hürzeler is not entirely wrong. Nevertheless, it is risky to put the most successful team of 2025/26 in such a position. That success undoubtedly proves Mikel Arteta and his protégés right, even though the hot phase of the season is still to come and the Gunners – as things stand today – have yet to lift a trophy.

Arsenal is in many ways the measure of all things

Admittedly, it would also be unfair to always mention Arsenal only in connection with set pieces. Their outstanding defense is also unmatched in Europe at the moment. In the league phase, they conceded just four goals in eight games, one of them away from home. All eight matches were won. In addition, no other team scored more goals than the Premier League leaders, who can now look back on ten consecutive competitive games without defeat.

Another positive is that coach Arteta was able to rotate his squad in the FA Cup at third-tier Macclesfield Town at the weekend, meaning he will have a fresh team at his disposal in the Rhineland on Wednesday.

Arsenal will attack Werkself early and hardly let them develop their game.

This is especially true given that Leverkusen has had the most high ball losses in the Champions League season so far. This narrative gives rise to various betting recommendations. For example, the betting odds for an away win between Arsenal and Leverkusen are interesting, including

Leverkusen – Arsenal Head-to-head comparison / H2H record

Bayer 04 Leverkusen has faced English clubs five times in the knockout stages of European competition so far – and has advanced to the next round four times! However, the only two competitive matches between these teams took place over 20 years ago.

In the second group stage of 2001/02, Arsenal won 4-1 after the first leg ended in a 1-1 draw. A friendly match in early August 2024 ended 4-1 in favor of the Gunners, who were even able to defeat Leverkusen at their home ground. However, the Werkself are currently a long way from that.

Leverkusen – Arsenal Tip

Arsenal FC has dominated this season’s Champions League at will so far. At no point in the eight matches in the league phase were the Londoners behind. No team scored more goals and no club conceded fewer goals than Arteta’s side, who consequently marched through the preliminary round with a maximum haul of 24 points. As Premier League leaders with a particular strength in set pieces, everything points to them also securing victory in the first leg of the round of 16 at the BayArena.

Considering that the Rhinelanders have won only one of their last five competitive games and are struggling to create or even convert scoring chances in the 2026 calendar year, I expect the Gunners to win, possibly even with a clean sheet. I think a good compromise would be to bet on Leverkusen vs. Arsenal for an away win with a maximum of four goals in the game.