Will the Tricky Trees live up to their role as favorites?
The round of 16 in the Europa League is coming up! Two teams that the bookies do not count among the favorites in the Europa League winner odds will face each other in the English Midlands. In the direct matchup, the betting providers also see the home team ahead in our Nottingham vs. Midtjylland tip.
However, we believe the odds for a home win are clearly too low. Just a few months ago, the underdogs from Denmark defeated the English Premier League team in their own stadium. Due to the somewhat inflated odds, we therefore see value in a Nottingham vs. Midtjylland prediction for an undefeated game for the visitors.
Unlike last fall’s high-scoring encounter, we don’t expect this rematch between the two teams to be a footballing treat. With so much at stake in the knockout duel, we don’t expect either team to lay all their cards on the table in the first leg.
Nottingham – Midtjylland Head-to-head record / H2H record
Nottingham Forest and FC Midtjylland already met last October in the group stage of the Europa League; this is also the only match between the two teams to date. At that time, the Danes won 3-2 at City Ground.
This was the Danish runners-up’s fourth win in nine games against English teams (4-2-3). Despite the victory in the last encounter, however, the bookies are setting the Nottingham vs. Midtjylland betting odds relatively clearly in favor of the hosts.
Nottingham – Midtjylland Tip
Even under new Portuguese coach Vítor Pereira, the Tricky Trees are struggling to get going in their domestic Premier League. Nevertheless, Pereira, who is already the fourth coach to take the Nottingham hot seat this season after Sean Dyche, Ange Postecoglou, and Nuno Espirito Santo, celebrated his new team’s confident entry into the round of 16 of the Europa League.
Fenerbahce Istanbul was eliminated in the play-offs with two wins. In fact, Vítor Pereira’s team has a very strong record in European cup first legs in the knockout system. Here, the Tricky Trees have celebrated 15 wins in 23 games and lost only five times (15-3-5). This may be one reason why the odds for a Nottingham vs. Midtjylland tip are so clearly in favor of the home team.
Sure, the Premier League team has the far more valuable squad and home advantage on its side. On the other hand, the priority for the team from the English Midlands these days is likely to be staying in the Premier League. A possible rotation in the first leg against the Danes cannot therefore be ruled out. But that’s not the only reason we think FC Midtjylland has better chances in the first leg than the bookies.
Midtjylland has played well in European competition in recent months, remaining undefeated in twelve of its last 13 European matches. In the Europa League group stage, the Danes suffered only one defeat and recorded six wins (6-1-1). Thanks to a strong third place in the final standings, Mike Tullberg’s team avoided the playoffs, unlike their upcoming opponents.
Defeats were certainly not part of everyday life for the Danish runners-up this season. Midtjylland also lost only two games at home in the Danish league. However, the club from Herning failed to win their last two European away games. A defeat at Roma was followed by a 3-3 goal fest at Brann Bergen. For this reason, and due to their individual inferiority, the bookies are rather skeptical about Tullberg’s team’s chances of success in the first leg of the round of 16.
However, we do not believe that the Danish runners-up have no chance at all on Thursday. As in the first leg, the supposed underdogs could make up for their individual inferiority with team spirit against the struggling English Premier League side and prevail again at City Ground.
