Can the Blues keep pace?
Few Premier League teams would describe matches against the Toffees as pleasant. David Moyes’ team doesn’t shy away from a tackle on the field and has won the most duels per game in the league (58.2). We’re expecting an intense matchup in our Everton vs. Chelsea tip.
The Merseyside club’s defense, in particular, often presents a challenging task for opposing attackers. Just ahead of our Everton vs. Chelsea prediction, the hosts have conceded no more than one goal in eight of their last ten Premier League matches.
For this, we’re factoring in both teams. Moyes’ squad often defends relentlessly, having allowed only 35 goals so far and boasting the third-best defense in the English top flight alongside the Blues. Unlike the Londoners, however, the home side lacks punch in their attacking play.
The eighth-place team rarely finds itself in promising positions in front of the opponent’s goal. Moyes’s side has scored only 34 goals so far (15th). The home side ranks similarly in the league comparison of expected goals – 36.0 xG is only enough for 14th place.
Everton – Chelsea Head-to-Head Record
Let’s turn to the most recent head-to-head matches. Chelsea won the first leg at Stamford Bridge without conceding a goal (2-0). In a slightly less comfortable but equally successful performance, the Blues also secured the previous match at their home stadium (1-0).
Visits to Merseyside have often been less successful in recent times. Everton lost only one of their previous eight home games (5W, 2D). The formula was almost always the same: shut down the Londoners’ attacks as effectively as possible. Chelsea failed to score in six of their previous eight Premier League away games against the Toffees!
Everton – Chelsea Prediction
In the eight previous matches at Moyes’s side’s stadium, Chelsea scored a total of just two goals. Nine of the last eleven Premier League matchups between Everton and Chelsea also ended with a maximum of two goals on the scoreboard.
We’re basing our prediction on these numbers again this time. On average, only 2.30 goals have been scored per Everton game in this Premier League season. Exactly two-thirds of the PL matches involving the Toffees have ended with fewer than three goals so far.
To secure a home win, the eighth-place team will need to work on its efficiency. The Toffees have converted just 10.3 percent of their shots so far (15th). This figure becomes even more telling when compared to their shot volume (330) relative to all PL teams (15th).
Also interesting: Everton has failed to score in 12 of their 19 previous Premier League matches against Chelsea—in the last four meetings, Everton has failed to find the net every time.
