Will Struff carry the momentum from his opening-round victory?
Although 35-year-old Jan-Lennard Struff from Warstein is already in the golden autumn of his career, he is far from being past his prime. In Madrid, where he reached the final three years ago, the German once again achieved something great in his opening match.
Trailing 0-4 and down two breaks against Alexandre Müller (ATP 95), Struffi forced a tiebreak, which he won 7-3. That broke the Frenchman’s resistance, and the Warstein native handed him a bagel in the second set (6-0). It is therefore conceivable that the tip for a victory by the 35-year-old will also come true in Jan-Lennard Struff’s match against Alex Michelsen.
Although Struff is now facing a seeded opponent, the 21-year-old Californian is a classic hard-court player, has a winning percentage of just 33 percent on clay in 2026, and has lost his opening match in both of his previous appearances in Madrid. At times, the rising star lacks the necessary patience for long rallies, which could prove decisive against a dominant Jan-Lennard Struff. Since we give the German at least a 50 percent chance of winning, the corresponding bet is an excellent play, as the Warsteiner enters the match as the underdog.
Jan-Lennard Struff is, of course, not the textbook clay-court specialist either. However, the red clay in the Spanish capital is notoriously different. Due to the high altitude (approx. 650 meters), the balls fly much faster than on other clay courts, which suits the Warstein native’s fast and aggressive style of play.
Jan-Lennard Struff – Alex Michelsen Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 0:0
The paths of these two athletes have never crossed before. Consequently, there is no “head-to-head” data available that could influence our prediction for Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Alex Michelsen in any way.
Jan-Lennard Struff – Alex Michelsen Prediction
Based purely on world rankings, the current No. 81 from Germany faces a player ranked 33rd. This explains why the top betting providers are favoring the Californian in the Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Alex Michelsen match, though in our opinion, this is too simplistic a view. Both players rely heavily on their serve, but the statistics favor Struff, who hit seven aces in the opening match and won seven games in a row after a weak start. Consequently, it’s likely to be difficult for Michelsen to get into rallies, as the young American has frequently struggled with defensive positioning on clay courts.
In addition to the surface, which—as noted—favors the German, experience is also a factor. The young Californian is a representative of the Next Generation and has never won a match on the red clay of Madrid in two tournament appearances. Now he faces an opponent 14 years his senior who reached the final here three years ago. Struff knows and appreciates “La Caja Mágica,” which is why we give him at least a 50 percent chance of winning, if not as high as 60 percent.
