Can Sevilla pull away decisively?
The Spanish league title was officially decided on Sunday night. FC Barcelona can no longer be caught and has long since begun its celebrations. Villarreal Club de Futbol also has every reason to celebrate, as the “Yellow Submarine” will compete in the UEFA Champions League for the second year in a row. Third place is now secure for coach Marcelino’s team, though he will be leaving the club this summer.
For the men from the province of Castellón, the remaining three matchdays are now just for the sake of pride. Nevertheless, I recommend betting on the home team in Villarreal’s home match against Sevilla.
And this despite the fact that the visitors from Andalusia are still fighting to avoid relegation. In that regard, however, the southern Spaniards have recently celebrated two important wins in a row and pulled themselves slightly away from the bottom of the table. Despite sitting in 13th place, the situation is not yet settled, as they currently hold a three-point lead over the first relegation spot. This makes the midweek away trip all the more important; however, with a potential Villarreal vs. Sevilla prediction in mind, the outlook for the former Europa League serial winners is not particularly promising.
In particular, the fact that a demonstrably very strong home team is facing a weak away team means that, in my view, the Villarreal vs. Sevilla odds for a home win are actually much too high. After all, the “Yellow Submarine” has won 82 percent of its home games this season. Sevilla’s away record, meanwhile, stands at four wins, three draws, and ten losses.
For those who, given the situation where the home team has nothing left to play for in sporting terms, still find it too risky to bet on the 1X2 market, a match combo is also an option. For example, the combination of the Double Chance 1X with over 1.5 goals is a good option here. Throughout the entire season, Villarreal has only lost its home matches against Barcelona and Real Madrid.
Furthermore, at least two goals were scored in every single home game without exception. In 14 out of 17 cases, Marcelino’s team scored at least twice in front of their home fans. That should be sufficient justification to view the betting odds of 1.65 as a sensible and risk-adjusted compromise ahead of the kickoff of the Villarreal vs. Sevilla match.
Villarreal – Sevilla Head-to-Head Record
Villarreal already managed to win the first leg of this season’s matchup in Seville. The goal for the 2-1 away victory came late in September. However, it was also the fourth consecutive defeat for the “Nervionenses” in this fixture. The Andalusians last won an away match at Villarreal in 2017. It is also interesting to note that both teams have scored in each of the last eight consecutive meetings.
Villarreal – Sevilla Prediction
Toward the end of the season, surprising results are common in virtually every league. That is precisely why bookmakers adjust their odds significantly compared to a match in the middle of the season. Just a few weeks ago, it would have been unthinkable that a home win by third-place Villarreal against relegation-threatened FC Sevilla would carry odds of up to 2.15.
However, since the home team has nothing left to play for on Wednesday night and the visitors still need points to avoid relegation, these odds are at least somewhat justifiable, even if not at this level.
Given the “Yellow Submarine’s” home form, the impending departure of coach Marcelino—who certainly deserves a nice farewell tour—and the fact that Sevilla has achieved absolutely nothing on the road in recent weeks, it’s an easy choice for me to back a home win between Villarreal and Sevilla. I’m betting four units on the aforementioned 2.15 odds.
