Will Girona secure crucial points in the fight to avoid relegation?
On Thursday, FC Girona and Real Sociedad will face off in Spain’s top flight. On paper, the roles seem relatively clear: while the visitors have already qualified for the Europa League and can hardly improve their position in the standings, the home side is still in the thick of the relegation battle.
Contrary to their current standings, the hosts—and not the favorites—are under pressure heading into this matchup. That’s likely why the maximum odds offered for a Girona vs. Real Sociedad win are just 2.12.
However, the fact that FCG must win this match is, of course, not the same as whether they will actually do so. As part of our Girona vs. Real Sociedad prediction, we’ll therefore take a very close look at both teams and examine whether the home side’s chances of winning are truly as high as the betting odds suggest.
We’ll start with their home and away records and note that the visitors have struggled on the road. Pellegrino Matarazzo’s side has won just three away games, remaining winless in 14 away matches. This naturally works in the White-and-Reds’ favor, as every point counts in the fight to avoid relegation. However, with only 22 points from 17 home games, the question arises as to whether they can manage more than a draw.
Generally speaking, we have to answer this question in the negative, as the home team is far from being in top form. To be precise, Michel’s team has won only two of their last eleven games, causing them to slip further down the table.
On the other hand, we must note that the visitors have also won only three of their last eleven competitive matches, and those were all at home. The visiting team’s poor away form will most likely be the decisive factor behind why the Girona vs. Real Sociedad odds are leaning quite clearly against an away win.
Girona – Real Sociedad Head-to-Head Record
The individual quality, the mediocre home record, and the dismal form do not, at first glance, point to a home win. However, there is still one reason why the Gironistes have cause for hope. FCG lost only two of their last six matches against San Sebastian and even secured an away win in the first half of the season.
All in all, that win was well-deserved, and this was also reflected in the xG value (0.92 vs. 1.44). This is likely another reason why the Girona vs. Real Sociedad betting odds favor a home win. However, one fact stands out even more clearly in a direct comparison: the number of games in which both teams managed to score—that was the case in five of the last seven matchups.
Girona – Real Sociedad Tip
Taking all these facts into account, we’ve decided on the Girona vs. Real Sociedad tip “both teams to score – yes.” While the home side has something to prove, a win is by no means a foregone conclusion. San Sebastian boasts significantly more individual quality and, having already secured their place in the Europa League, can approach this match with a certain degree of ease.
Whether that turns out to be a good or bad thing remains to be seen. But one thing is certain: with 54 goals in 35 league games, Pellegrino Matarazzo’s team ranks among the top 5 offenses in La Liga.
In connection with our main bet, the Girona vs. Real Sociedad odds for over 2.5 goals in the match are naturally also worth considering. As mentioned earlier, we expect at least one goal from both sides. However, that won’t be enough for the home team, so Michel’s squad will take more risks toward the end of the match. Of course, this could also result in San Sebastian winning the game with a counterattack. A 2-1 or 1-2 score, just like in the first leg, is therefore conceivable.
