Will the Giallorossi still make it to the Champions League?
The 187th Derby della Capitale is in danger of descending into chaos these days. First, authorities expressed concerns that scheduling the match for Sunday afternoon could conflict with the final of the major tennis tournament taking place at the Foro Italico in Rome and pose a security risk. But then the league opposed a rescheduling for the sake of competitive fairness, as all matches are supposed to kick off simultaneously to ensure equal opportunity in the tight race for Champions League spots.
In the run-up to our AS Roma vs. Lazio Roma tip, it is therefore not yet entirely clear whether the match will actually take place on Monday evening—as vehemently demanded by the authorities—or whether the Lega Serie A will push through with the Sunday schedule despite all security concerns.
Whenever the match kicks off: The focus will naturally be on the sporting aspect, and here, above all, there is still something at stake for the Wolves, who, having earned 13 out of a possible 15 points, can once again hope for a Champions League spot. The Biancocelesti, meanwhile, are languishing in a disappointing ninth place and also lost the Coppa Italia final against Inter Milan 0-2 during the week. Since we don’t expect a high-scoring derby, we therefore recommend the Match Combo of Double Chance 1X with under 3.5 goals.
On the one hand, AS Roma is known for its defensive stability, having conceded just 31 goals in 36 Serie A matches during the 2025/26 season. On the other hand, Lazio coach Maurizio Sarri also favors a predominantly tough and destructive style of defensive soccer. The Aquile (meaning “the Eagles”) have conceded just 37 goals, but have scored only 39. Accordingly, the neutral tip that a maximum of two goals will be scored in the Derby della Capitale is also a valid one. Incidentally, there have been no more goals in any of the last eight city derbies.
AS Roma – Lazio Rome Head-to-Head Record
Head to Head: 70 – 65 – 51
The Derby della Capitale has been played a total of 186 times as a competitive match, and with 70 wins, AS Roma holds the edge; they also won the first leg at the Stadio Olimpico 1-0 against Lazio Rome. Overall, the Giallorossi are now unbeaten in their last four meetings with their city rivals (three wins, one draw) and have conceded just a single goal during that period.
AS Roma – Lazio Tip
Given that the Aquile are likely to be completely deflated after losing the Coppa Italia final, our prediction for AS Roma vs. Lazio Rome leans toward the Wolves. The Giallorossi have earned 13 out of a possible 15 points from their last five Serie A matches, putting them level with AC Milan and just one point behind Juventus Turin.
If they can secure a near-perfect haul of points in their final league matches against the Laziali and Hellas Verona, it’s quite likely that the Champions League anthem will ring out again at the Stadio Olimpico next season.
However, the Derby della Capitale between two very defensively minded teams could well turn into a tough battle and a test of patience for the Wolves. Given the low odds offered for Tip 1, we would therefore steer clear of the three-way system and instead go with the combined bet on the Double Chance 1X with under 3.5 goals. According to the Betano app, the odds for AS Roma vs. Lazio are 1.60, which we’re betting six out of ten units on.
