Will the hosts start with a win?
The “Soccer Boys” are the favorites in Group D alongside Turkey and, in their World Cup preparations, recorded a win against Senegal as well as a narrow 1-2 loss to four-time champions Germany. Against this backdrop, a prediction of a home victory in the match between the USA and Paraguay seems well worth considering.
For its part, Paraguay warmed up at the start of the month with a 4-0 win over Nicaragua, though the significance of that victory shouldn’t be overestimated given the opponent’s level. However, the “Guaraníes” proved they’re in the final tournament for a reason by securing home wins against South American soccer heavyweights like Argentina and Brazil during World Cup qualifying.
Nevertheless, we consider the hosts to be the better team, particularly on the offensive end. In that regard, the U.S. can also count on a particularly potent striker in Folarin Balogun.
The 24-year-old had a great season last year: Playing for AS Monaco in Ligue 1, he scored 13 goals and finished as the fourth-highest scorer in the French top flight. He also feels right at home among his “Soccer Boys”—during preparations for the home World Cup, he scored again in the 3-2 win over Senegal.
Furthermore, he also scored last year in a friendly against their upcoming opponent. In light of this, we’re predicting another goal by the AS striker in the match between the USA and Paraguay.
USA vs. Paraguay AI Prediction
AI has analyzed the match and triggered a value alert on the odds for a US victory. The Wettbasis AI estimates the probability of a win for the hosts at 51.2 percent, which is higher than the 2.00 odds available for this outcome at Interwetten (as of June 10, 2026, 09:14), which translates to a 50 percent probability. The USA vs. Paraguay AI prediction therefore points to a victory for the “Soccer Boys.”
USA – Statistics & Current Form
The US team will naturally rely on home-field advantage in this match, and their own fans will surely cheer on Coach Mauricio Pochettino’s squad frenetically at the stadium in Los Angeles, California.
Furthermore, the US team is not lacking in quality. Numerous players, such as the aforementioned Folarin Balogun, play for top European clubs at the club level.
Milan player leads the US
Captain Christian Pulisic is also on the list. The forward is under contract with AC Milan and consistently delivers strong performances in Lombardy. Last season, he was involved in a dozen goals, and in each of his two previous seasons with Milan, he was involved in 20!
Furthermore, the U.S. has a very experienced coach in Mauricio Pochettino. The Argentine took over from Gregg Berhalter in 2024 and has worked with several prominent clubs, such as PSG and Chelsea, throughout his coaching career.
Since taking over, he has already celebrated success at last year’s Gold Cup. In that tournament, he led his team to the final, where the 1930 World Cup third-place finisher ultimately fell 1-2 to their eternal rivals, Mexico.
The U.S. defense has room for improvement
One area of concern, however, is the defense: While we consider the offense to be strong, the same cannot be said for the U.S. defense. This is evident from the fact that goals were regularly conceded in the four friendly matches in 2026.
They always conceded at least two goals, averaging as many as 2.75. With that in mind, the odds for both teams to score and for more than two goals in the match between the US and Paraguay are also worth considering—you can place your bets on them at Betano.
Paraguay – Statistics & Current Form
The Paraguayan national soccer team celebrated its greatest World Cup success to date in 2010, when it reached the quarterfinals. However, this achievement marked the end of a generally successful phase for the country.
Paraguay had qualified for the World Cup in South Africa for the fourth consecutive time and established itself in the final tournament as a tough opponent, particularly strong defensively. Subsequently, however, Paraguay missed out on no fewer than three World Cups, which is why qualifying for the 2026 World Cup is already a major success for the “Albirroja.”
Paraguay Worries About Key Player
In terms of personnel, however, the situation doesn’t look ideal. The reason is the question mark surrounding Diego Gomez’s fitness. The defender plays for Brighton in the Premier League and is a regular starter there.
In the national team, he is considered the best player in the defensive unit. However, Gomez was recently injured, which is why he lacks competitive match practice.
Julio Enciso, on the other hand, is currently in good form. The attacking midfielder was involved in five goals (1 goal & 4 assists) in the final three league matches of his club, Racing Strasbourg, in Ligue 1. The U.S. should therefore keep a close eye on him.
Paraguay Relying on a Tactical Master Against the U.S.
One similarity with the opponent, however, is that Paraguay can also count on a very experienced coach. We’re talking about Argentine Gustavo Alfaro, who previously managed the national teams of Ecuador and Costa Rica.
In addition, he has celebrated numerous successes as a club coach, such as winning the 2007 Copa Sudamericana with Arsenal de Sarandi or triumphing in the 2019 Supercopa Argentina with Boca Juniors! It was largely thanks to him that the team mastered the qualifiers.
He took over the team after an initially weak World Cup qualifying campaign and a completely disappointing performance at the 2024 Copa América, where they suffered three losses in the group stage. Under Alfaro, Paraguay then won five of their six home games in World Cup qualifying, narrowly securing a spot in the finals as the sixth-place team in the ten-team group and claiming the last direct ticket.
We still favor the hosts, not least because of the home-field advantage, which is why the betting odds on a home win in the match between the USA and Paraguay could also be worth considering.
USA – Paraguay Head-to-Head Record
The last match between the two nations took place in November of last year, and the USA won the friendly 2-1 in front of their home crowd at Subaru Park in Chester, Pennsylvania. Thanks to that victory, the Americans now have three straight wins in this matchup.
The odds also favor the hosts in the upcoming match between the USA and Paraguay.
USA – Paraguay Prediction
The “Stars & Stripes” are hosting their second World Cup on home soil since 1994, and expectations are high. The team is packed with players who have proven their international caliber through their performances at European clubs.
Moreover, the “Soccer Boys” can count on the support of their own fans. One example of the high quality in the U.S. squad is Folarin Balogun. The AS Monaco striker topped his combined tally from the previous two seasons in the Principality with 13 goals in the last edition of Ligue 1!
Moreover, he remains in sharp scoring form, as demonstrated by his recent goal in the friendly against Senegal. Although he was on the field for only one half of that match, Balogun struck again.
Since we now also consider the U.S. to be superior to Paraguay, the striker shouldn’t lack for chances. This is further supported by the fact that Paraguay performed particularly well at home in World Cup qualifying, while only eight of their 28 points were earned on the road. Given this situation, we’re betting on another goal by Balogun in the match between the U.S. and Paraguay.
