Is this the end of the road for the player from Kempen?
Daniel Altmaier is generally considered a clay-court specialist and rarely makes a significant impact outside the clay-court season. This makes it all the more remarkable that he was able to defeat Hubert Hurkacz—a strong grass-court player—2-1 in the round of 16 and secure his spot in the quarterfinals. It remains to be seen whether there is value in betting on another surprise victory for the player from Kempen in his match against Daniil Medvedev. In any case, the odds for this outcome are set very high.
Nevertheless, in the match between Daniel Altmaier and Daniil Medvedev, predicting another victory for the 27-year-old German is ultimately too risky. After all, he’s now facing a completely different type of player in the Moscow native. The former US Open champion is significantly more solid defensively and is having a very solid season with 28 wins out of 38 singles matches.
On top of that, the Russian already defeated the player from Kempen a year ago on the grass in Halle in straight sets (6-3, 6-3). We expect a similar result this time around as well, which is why we’re betting on Daniil Medvedev with a -1.5-set handicap.
Not only would it be a huge surprise if the German home favorite won a set, but even a single set in which he could force the Russian—who not only serves with extreme power but, above all, possesses a lethal return game—into a tiebreak is not very likely.
Daniel Altmaier – Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 0:2
The two players have faced each other twice so far, and in both cases, Daniil Medvedev came out on top. While their first match—which took place on carpet at a Futures tournament in Switzerland in 2016—can be considered negligible, their most recent encounter to date is certainly highly significant. A year ago, the two players clashed in Halle, where the Russian gave the player from Kempen no chance at all, winning 2–0 (6–3, 6–3).
Daniel Altmaier – Daniil Medvedev Prediction
The fact that Daniel Altmaier even made it to the quarterfinals—in a season where he had just six wins and 16 losses before the tournament began—was a major surprise in itself, especially since he knocked out Hubert Hurkacz, a serving powerhouse, from the tournament.
Now, however, the player from Kempen is likely to reach his limits, as he faces a completely different type of player in Daniil Medvedev. The Russian, moreover, didn’t give his opponents a single chance, dispatching both Tomás Martín Etcheverry and Térence Atmane in straight sets, 2-0. Not a single one of the four sets came even close to going to a tiebreak.
Even now, anything other than a clear 2-0 victory for the favored Russian would be a massive surprise. We therefore recommend the -1.5-set handicap on the Moscow native, for which Bet-at-home is offering odds of 1.63 on Daniel Altmaier vs. Daniil Medvedev. We’re investing six out of ten units on this bet.
