Can Tunisia pull off a surprise to close out the tournament?

The Eagles of Carthage are indeed on track to become the worst team in the tournament. After two losses and a goal difference of 1:9, they are the third team—after Turkey and Haiti—to be eliminated early. Naturally, this doesn’t exactly make it a good idea to bet on the underdog in the Tunisia vs. Netherlands match. However, the AI analysis sees things a bit differently.

In the final group match between Tunisia and the Netherlands, the supercomputer’s forecast actually sees opportunities to cash in on value by betting on the North Africans. The best option here is an “Asian handicap bet” at bet365—but more on that later.

What motivation do the Tunisians still have to put up a strong fight against the Dutch and pull off a possible upset, given that they’ve already been eliminated? Quite simply, the Eagles of Carthage must salvage their honor.

To avoid being chased out of their own country in disgrace, Hervé Renard’s team—after two crushing defeats—must now manage to at least bow out of the World Cup with their heads held high. They simply cannot afford a third loss by a four-goal margin.

For the “Elftal,” on the other hand, the goal is to secure first place in the group with a big win. That would likely allow them to avoid a matchup with Brazil in the Round of 16—provided the “Seleção” clinches the group title itself.

Tunisia vs. Netherlands AI Prediction

As mentioned at the outset, despite the “Oranje’s” apparent superiority, it might be worth betting on an upset. The AI is, of course, also convinced that Koeman’s team is the favorite, but it views the chances of the already-eliminated underdog more favorably than the bookmakers do.

The risk-reward ratio is significantly better for handicap bets. Even for “Tunisia +2 (AHC),” the AI believes that the bookmakers are offering odds that are too high for the Tunisia vs. Netherlands match. AHC bets also offer the advantage that, in the event of a victory by Koeman’s team by a two-goal margin, the bet would be lost, but the stake would be refunded.

Tunisia – Statistics & Current Form

Even in their seventh World Cup appearance in history, the Tunisians have failed to advance past the group stage. However, they have never failed as miserably as they have in this tournament. With zero points and a goal difference of -8, the Eagles of Carthage were eliminated without a fight after just their second match.

The Tunisian Chronology of Failure

The trouble began as early as December of the previous year. Following a disappointing elimination in the Round of 16 of the Africa Cup of Nations against Mali, Sami Trabelsi—under whom World Cup qualification had been secured—was fired. He was succeeded by Sabri Lamouchi, who won the first match of his tenure against Haiti 1–0 but failed to secure another victory afterward and even lost the World Cup warm-up match against Belgium 0–5. Following a crushing opening-match defeat against Sweden two weeks later, he, too, lost his job.

Now, while the tournament is still underway, the federation manages to secure a hire that can certainly be described as a coup. Hervé Renard is a two-time Africa Cup of Nations winner, one of the continent’s most renowned coaches, and—among other achievements—four years ago led Saudi Arabia to a 2–1 victory over eventual World Cup champion Argentina in the latter’s opening match of the tournament. But not even he manages, in such a short time, to make his team resilient. The second matchday in Group F also ends in a bitter defeat against Japan.

So, on the face of it, everything points to new coach Renard’s team suffering another heavy defeat against the “Elftal.” But that’s precisely where an opportunity lies. No one expects anything from the already-eliminated underdog—least of all the bookmakers, who are offering (too) high odds on Tunisia against the Netherlands for bets on the North Africans. Furthermore, it’s safe to assume that Renard, who is an outstanding motivator, will succeed in inspiring his Eagles of Carthage—at least in the final match of this tournament—to play for pride and ensure a redeeming conclusion to this World Cup.

Netherlands – Statistics & Current Form

After a late equalizer led to a bitter 2–2 draw against Japan in their opener, the “Oranje” managed to virtually secure their spot in the Round of 16 with a 5–1 victory over Sweden. In their final group stage match, Ronald Koeman’s team now aims to secure first place and put themselves in a strong position heading into the knockout stage.

The Netherlands’ offensive firepower still has room for improvement

With players like Brobbey, Gakpo, and Summerville, the “Elftal” boasts tremendous quality on offense. The Premier League-tested attack has already scored seven goals in this tournament, though it has also significantly outperformed its own xGoals. Based on the quality of the chances created, data models have calculated that the Netherlands should have scored at most half as many goals.

Now that the pendulum has swung in the Dutch team’s favor twice, it’s reasonable to assume that their offensive “output” will align more closely with expected goals as the tournament progresses. In this match—as the AI forecast also predicts for Tunisia vs. the Netherlands—it’s therefore more likely that there won’t be as many goals as in the first two group stage games.

Tunisia – Netherlands Head-to-Head Record

These two teams have faced each other three times. The Netherlands won once, and the other two matches ended in draws. The last head-to-head match took place over 17 years ago.

Tunisia – Netherlands Prediction

The Tunisians have been one of the biggest disappointments of this tournament so far; they changed coaches after the first matchday, have zero points after two games, have a goal difference of 1:9, and have already been eliminated before the final matchday. Looking at these statistics, it’s only logical that bookmakers are offering exorbitantly high odds on a victory for the Eagles of Carthage in the Tunisia vs. Netherlands match.

However, these odds are so high that the AI analysis actually considers it sensible to place a bet on the big underdog putting up a respectable showing. Those who want to minimize the risk of losing a bet can also place an AHC bet.

Alternatively, it might also be worth betting on a low-scoring match in Tunisia vs. the Netherlands. Although the “Elftal” has already shown a scoring streak in this tournament, they have far exceeded their own “expected goals.” Such overperformance usually cannot be sustained for too long.