Who will claim their first major title in Portugal?
Just one year after the clay-court tournament in Estoril was upgraded from a Challenger event to an ATP 250, a correspondingly high-caliber field has gathered on the outskirts of the Estremadura region. However, neither top seed Andrey Rublev nor the in-form Luciano Darderi made it to the final—instead, it’s two Next-Gen players. It doesn’t matter which prediction—Luca Van Assche vs. Alexander Blockx—comes true: for the winner of the match, it will be the very first major title of their career. After all, both athletes are appearing in the final of an official ATP Tour tournament for the very first time in their still-young careers.
Their paths, however, only crossed in February on the Challenger Tour, when—curiously enough—a title was also at stake in Lille. The Belgian-born Frenchman won 2-0 against his future compatriot, which also influences our Luca Van Assche vs. Alexander Blockx prediction somewhat. In the final between these two very young players, psychological factors are likely to play a key role. And here, winning the final in Lille certainly comes into play, even though both players have proven themselves to be true fighters.
Given the slight advantage for Luca Van Assche—who is listed as the underdog by the top bookmakers—we would expect the Frenchman to win at least one set. After all, Alexander Blockx has “only” won 2-1 in each of his three victories on the way to the final—a run that saw him spend more than 7.5 hours on the court. We are therefore placing a positive handicap of +1.5 sets on Luca Van Assche.
Although the Frenchman defeated his compatriot Hugo Gaston 2-0 in the semifinals, he also had to go the full distance of three sets in each of the three rounds prior to that. Accordingly, it’s also a logical bet that the grand final at the 2026 Estoril Open will also require three sets to determine the champion.
Luca Van Assche – Alexander Blockx Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 1:0
This is the first meeting between the two players on the ATP Tour itself, though they did face off on the Challenger Tour as recently as February 2026. In Lille, they also played each other in a final—albeit on a hard court. Back then, Luca Van Assche—ranked nearly 40 spots lower—defeated Alexander Blockx in straight sets, 2-0 (6-2, 6-4). Now, another title is on the line.
Luca Van Assche – Alexander Blockx Prediction
Two very young players are now battling for their very first title chance on the ATP Tour, but they’ve had a tough week full of ups and downs. Van Assche showed great mental resilience in the quarterfinals against top seed Andrey Rublev, coming back from a 0-1 set deficit, while Alexander Blockx staged an incredible comeback against Luciano Darderi in Saturday’s semifinal. After falling behind 0-1 in sets, he was trailing significantly in the tiebreaks of both the second and third sets (2-5 in the second and 0-4 in the third), but managed to win both tiebreaks in the end—a feat that required not only physical but also mental strength.
There’s no doubt that the Belgian left more energy on the court on Saturday, having played a total of over 7.5 hours over three days. On top of that, Alexander Blockx also lost his only head-to-head match against Luca Van Assche to date. We therefore expect the Frenchman to win at least one set and see significant value in betting on him with a +1.5-set handicap.
