Can Thun pull off an upset in Croatia’s capital?
The second leg of the second qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League will determine which team takes the next step toward the Champions League. The 1-1 draw from the first leg has shifted the balance even further in Dinamo Zagreb’s favor ahead of the rematch. Given the result from a week ago, the likelihood that a bet on Dinamo Zagreb advancing will pay off in this matchup against Thun has thus increased even further.
Although the Swiss surprise champions played with courage and discipline for long stretches, they failed to secure a real advantage for the second leg in front of their home crowd. My Dinamo Zagreb vs. Thun prediction therefore continues to clearly favor the Croatian serial champions, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the match doesn’t really pick up steam until the start of the second half.
However, despite their clear underdog status, FC Thun shouldn’t be completely written off. After all, the team from the Bernese Oberland kicked off the new Super League season with a convincing 3-1 away win at FC Lucerne over the weekend, which gave them a boost of confidence. Furthermore, the Swiss have nothing to lose in Zagreb and can therefore play with a sense of freedom.
While it’s important to note that a significant core of the championship team departed this summer—including coach Mauro Lustrinelli, who moved to Union Berlin in the Bundesliga, as well as several key players—the aggressive pressing, for example, remains firmly anchored in the team’s playing philosophy. It is precisely this bold approach that we’re likely to see in the second leg as well—with the expectation that Thun will create scoring chances of its own but will also leave spaces open defensively.
Personally, I find the standard 1X2 odds on a Dinamo Zagreb home win a bit too low to derive a genuine value bet from them. That’s why I’m focusing on a more specialized betting market. It was already evident in the first leg that Dinamo significantly ramped up the intensity after halftime, controlled the game, and absolutely deserved the late equalizer. I believe we’ll see a similar scenario in the second leg.
Depending on the score at that point, one team will be forced to take more risks by the second half at the latest—either Thun in pursuit of an upset, or Zagreb if their chances of advancing are in jeopardy. This should make the match increasingly open and create more space.
Dinamo Zagreb – Thun Head-to-Head Record
The first leg in Thun was also the first-ever competitive match between the two clubs and ended in a fair 1-1 draw. The Swiss took an early lead through Brighton Labeau, before Dinamo Zagreb—following a marked improvement in their performance in the second half—gradually took control and were rewarded with a well-deserved equalizer in the 86th minute courtesy of Miha Zajc.
The statistics also underscore this impression: The Croatians had more possession, a higher number of shots on goal, and better xG figures, and were clearly the dominant team, especially after the break. While Thun faced a Croatian club in European competition for the first time ever and is getting a taste of Champions League action again after more than 20 years, Dinamo Zagreb has been a regular on the European stage for years and therefore has a significant advantage in terms of experience.
Dinamo Zagreb – Thun Prediction
Following last week’s 1-1 draw, the odds ahead of the second leg still clearly favor Dinamo Zagreb. The Croatians have the stronger squad, significantly more international experience, and now enjoy home-field advantage. Nevertheless, FC Thun impressively demonstrated in the first leg that it is certainly capable of causing problems for the favorites. Furthermore, the Swiss side is already up to speed in league play and celebrated a successful start to the new Super League season over the weekend with a 3-1 win at FC Lucerne. It would therefore come as no surprise if the surprise champions from the Bernese Oberland put up a brave fight at times in Zagreb as well and once again make life difficult for the Croatian serial champions.
Ultimately, I’m going with “Over 1.5 goals in the second half” between Dinamo Zagreb and Thun. Already in the first leg, Dinamo picked up the pace noticeably after halftime and steadily increased the pressure. I expect the match to open up as the game progresses this time as well, because by the final stages at the latest, one of the two teams will have to take more risks. I’m betting five units at attractive odds of 1.88.
