Will the Scottish runner-up get revenge for the first leg?
The first two goals scored by the Styrians in the first leg (4–0) demonstrated why set pieces are becoming increasingly important in soccer. Captain Jon Gorenc Stankovic headed in a throw-in from Jeyland Mitchell just over three minutes into the game. The second of a total of four goals came off a corner kick. The remaining two goals followed within ten minutes, which seems to have effectively decided the outcome ahead of this Heart of Midlothian vs. Sturm Graz match.
Nevertheless, the top betting providers believe the Scottish runners-up are capable of a comeback—and a home win for the Jambos isn’t out of the question in our Heart of Midlothian vs. Sturm Graz prediction either. How could we rule it out—this team didn’t lose a single home game last season.
Wouter Vrancken’s competitive debut with his new club could certainly have ended in a less resounding failure. A four-goal margin was by no means the expected goal difference. Fabio Ingolitsch nevertheless saw a deserved victory for the Black and Whites (2.35:1.60 xG).
Clean and intense pressing is firmly ingrained in the DNA of the visitors from Austria. The current situation, as well as the expected onslaught from the Scottish runners-up, definitely plays into the Schwoazn’s hands. On top of that, the expected course of this matchup won’t be altered by just one or two goals.
The home team will take greater risks and leave plenty of space for counterattacks after losing possession. Furthermore, the Edinburgh side showed a certain vulnerability to opposing set pieces in the first leg.
Heart of Midlothian – Sturm Graz Head-to-Head Record
The first competitive match between the two clubs took place in the first leg. After a 20-year absence, the Scots had certainly dreamed of a more pleasant return to the Champions League qualifying stage than being sent off the field with a 0–4 loss.
However, Wouter Vrancken’s team wasn’t without a chance in Austria. The Jambos had 19 shots on goal throughout the match and created five clear-cut chances. Despite an expected goals (xG) of 1.60, they just couldn’t find the back of the net.
Heart of Midlothian – Sturm Graz Prediction
Sturm Graz, on the other hand, made the most of their own chances. Set pieces and counterattacks accounted for the majority of their goal-scoring threats—both scenarios that could very well arise again at Tynecastle Park. Add to that their commanding 3–0 victory in the ÖFB Cup.
That victory gave the team further confidence and belief in its own abilities following a turbulent preseason. In any case, a club that has finished in the top two of Austria’s top flight for five consecutive seasons is unlikely to lack self-confidence.
Furthermore, Ingolitsch’s squad has lost only one of its previous 22 matches. They fell 2–6 to Sturm Graz in a friendly against LNZ Clarkesy. Even in that match, the “Schwoazn” didn’t hold back on scoring, netting twice. They’ll likely treat their at least 500 traveling fans in Edinburgh to two goals as well.
