Will the Italian pass his first major test?
“I want to listen more to my body and get back to my best form without jeopardizing my health,” Lorenzo Musetti stated upon his return to the ATP Tour after a 76-day injury layoff. However, the Italian was unable to prove in the first round that he was back to 100 percent. His compatriot Matteo Arnaldi ultimately had to retire due to injury after 41 minutes. Consequently, when making a prediction for the Aleksandar Vukic vs. Lorenzo Musetti match, one must take into account that it remains unclear whether the Italian is back to his old self, especially after he publicly reflected on having suffered from stress and overexertion during the 2025 season.
Aleksandar Vukic, on the other hand, is currently in truly impressive form. The world No. 105 just won a Challenger tournament in Canada and then had to go through qualifying in Washington, where he cruised to two straight 2-0 victories just as easily as he did in the first round against Zachary Svajda. In his next 2-0 victory (6-3, 6-1), the Australian held every single service game, fired twelve aces, and shone in the rallies with 26 winners.
If he brings this power tennis to the court against the Italian as well, a prediction that the supposed underdog will win in the match between Aleksandar Vukic and Lorenzo Musetti is actually conceivable. We’re therefore highly inclined to bet that the man from Down Under will take at least one set from the favorite.
In fact, the first and only previous meeting between the two players went to a deciding set. If the Australian wins a set as expected, a three-set match is conceivable once again. Bet-at-home is offering odds of 2.45 on Aleksandar Vukic against Lorenzo Musetti.
Aleksandar Vukic – Lorenzo Musetti Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 0:1
The two players have faced each other only once, and given that this match dates back to February 2022, it doesn’t really carry much significance. Back then in Pune, on an outdoor hard court, Lorenzo Musetti prevailed over Aleksandar Vukic 2-1 in a hard-fought match (7-6, 3-6, 6-3).
Aleksandar Vukic – Lorenzo Musetti Prediction
On paper, Lorenzo Musetti is of course the favorite, although after a long injury layoff, there’s a question mark—one that shouldn’t be underestimated—regarding his competitive form, which is why backing him as the favorite in this match makes no sense at all, especially given the very low odds. After all, Aleksandar Vukic is also arriving with plenty of confidence. After winning the Challenger title in Granby and already securing three 2-0 victories in Washington (two of them in qualifying), the man from Down Under has now won eight consecutive singles matches.
Although he himself is only No. 105 in the ATP world rankings, we still think the Australian has a good chance of giving the world No. 15 a tough time. It’s a very reasonable prediction that the 30-year-old will take at least one set from the Italian.
