Can the Encarnados pull off a comeback?
The 2026/27 season hasn’t even started in Portugal yet, and already the pressure is on the Encarnados. If the prediction of a home win for the Águias (meaning “the Eagles”) against St. Gallen doesn’t pan out, the 38-time national champions would miss out not only on the Champions League but also on the Europa League. The last time the group stage of either competition took place without this storied club was during the 2001–02 season. The outcry following the 1-2 loss in Switzerland—which also marked Marco Silva’s competitive debut—was correspondingly intense.
FC St. Gallen, on the other hand, senses an opportunity for a major upset after finishing as runners-up, but will have anything but an easy time holding on to their narrow lead in the Portuguese cauldron. But playing for a draw doesn’t quite fit the DNA of the oldest soccer club on the European mainland, which, under Enrico Maaßen, scored 72 goals in 38 matches in Switzerland last season.
We expect a bold Espen side, which is certainly capable of scoring an away goal at Estádio da Luz. Whether the Green-Whites’ tally of over 0.5 goals against St. Gallen at Benfica Lisbon will be enough to pull off the upset remains doubtful, given the star power in the Águias’ squad.
Given that the odds for a home win by the Encarnados are so low, there is absolutely no value to be found in betting on the favorite. Nor do we see any case for betting on a handicap win by the Águias following the erratic first leg, in which—above all—the players’ lack of attitude left the traveling fans scratching their heads.
On top of that, the team from eastern Switzerland not only finds creative solutions on the field but has also proven time and again that they can come back from deficits. Against this backdrop, we expect at most a narrow victory for the Portuguese side, which means that for Benfica Lisbon vs. St. Gallen at odds of 2.38, an Asian handicap of +1.75 could be placed on the Espen, which we found in the bet365 app.
Benfica Lisbon – St. Gallen Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 0 – 0 – 1
Last Thursday’s first leg was the first and only meeting between the two teams in a competitive international match to date. Thanks to their 2-1 home win, FC St. Gallen holds the edge in the head-to-head record and is traveling to the Portuguese capital with confidence.
Benfica Lisbon – St. Gallen Prediction
While FCSG confirmed their 2–1 victory over Benfica Lisbon with a 2–1 win against FC Zurich in their Super League season opener on Sunday, the Encarnados must still wait for league play to resume in Portugal. However, it wasn’t a lack of competitive intensity that was the problem in the first leg. Rather, the players displayed an extremely questionable attitude, which—at least according to the national press—suggests that new coach Marco Silva and his team massively underestimated the task at hand.
The Águias could still get off lightly, though the first-leg loss in Switzerland has really ramped up the pressure. If the Espen play boldly and aggressively at Estádio da Luz, it could very quickly turn into a real test of character for the Encarnados. We see a lot of value in betting that the team from eastern Switzerland will score again.
