Will Struffi defeat the next Argentine?

The Struff vs. Cerundolo matchup in the second round of the US Open presents Jan-Lennard Struff with his next major test following his strong run at Wimbledon. The German confidently defeated Camilo Ugo Carabelli in three sets, 6-4, 6-3, 6-3, in his opening match and now hopes to make a splash in New York at the year’s final Grand Slam.

However, he faces Francisco Cerundolo, the world No. 25, who has never advanced past the second round at Flushing Meadows. Predicting the outcome of the match between Struff and Cerundolo is therefore quite tricky, as experience and a powerful serve go up against the Argentine’s significantly better season record.

In his opening-round victory over Carabelli, Struff demonstrated once again why his serve is a real weapon on fast hard courts. He won a whopping 88% of his points on first serve and took 30 of 34 of those rallies. However, only 44 percent of his first serves landed in the court. Against a significantly stronger returner like Cerundolo, this weakness could very well prove to be his undoing.

Overall, Struff has a negative singles record of 16–19 so far in 2026, and on hard courts, it’s as low as 6–9. At the same time, the 36-year-old should by no means be written off: His aggressive forehand, powerful serve, and ability to apply pressure with his first shot after the serve make him a tough opponent for anyone. That’s precisely why a tiebreak seems entirely realistic, especially since Cerundolo also won 73% of his points on his first serve in his opening match. Two strong servers could thus ensure at least one close set.

When it comes to the Struff vs. Cerundolo odds, I still see the Argentine as the favorite, and that’s not just because of his world ranking. Cerundolo is currently ranked No. 25 in the world and is having a strong season with 29 wins and 16 losses. The 28-year-old moves exceptionally well, is tough to break down from the baseline, and can generate a lot of pressure even on hard courts with his mix of speed, angled shots, and surprising winners.

In his opening match against Filip Misolic, he won in three sets, though more than 40 unforced errors show that the Argentine does go through phases of making unnecessary mistakes. It is precisely these fluctuations that could open the door for Struff, which is why I expect a close match. My prediction: Cerundolo will prevail in four sets, with at least one tiebreak likely on the cards.

Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Francisco Cerundolo Head-to-Head Record

In their only head-to-head match so far, Struff suffered a bitter 0-6, 2-6 defeat against Cerundolo. However, that match took place in the spring of 2025 on clay in Munich, so its relevance to the upcoming hard-court clash is limited.

On the faster hard court, Struff is clearly the favorite thanks to his strong serve and powerful groundstrokes; nevertheless, that previous match should serve as a warning to him. At the time, Cerundolo won a whopping 94% of his points on first serve and broke the German’s serve five times. With an eye on the Struff vs. Cerundolo betting odds, it will therefore be interesting to see if the German can stay in the match much closer this time and at least force it into the decisive stages of the set.

Jan-Lennard Struff vs. Francisco Cerundolo Prediction

All in all, Cerundolo enters this second-round matchup as the favorite, which is entirely understandable given his strong season record and higher ranking. However, Struff has a much better chance on hard courts than on clay and, with his powerful game, strong serve, and experience on Grand Slam stages, he’s certainly capable of making this a close, back-and-forth battle.

His commanding three-set victory over Carabelli has also shown that the 36-year-old is currently in good form in the tournament. In the best-of-five format, a tiebreak is also possible at any time, so even with Cerundolo being the overall favorite, we can expect some very close sets.

That’s exactly why my Struff vs. Cerundolo prediction isn’t necessarily focused on the winner, but rather on at least one tiebreak during the match. Both players have a strong first serve, especially Struffi, of course, who won a whopping 88% of his points on his first serve against Carabelli. I therefore find the odds of 2.07 on “Over 0.5 tiebreaks” extremely interesting—I’m putting four units on this bet.