Will the Saxons keep up the momentum on the Weser?
The second matchday of the German top flight is upon us, and here are our prediction and odds for the match on the Weser between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig! The home team kicked off the 64th season of the Bundesliga last week with a decisive 1-4 loss at Freiburg.
In contrast, the visitors made a strong statement right off the bat with a 3–0 win over Gladbach. It was evident that the squad is already well-synced, thanks to relatively few changes over the summer. Additionally, there are signs that Maxim Esteve—a new signing who missed the opener due to injury—will now be able to play in defense.
The Frenchman aims to follow in the footsteps of several of his compatriots at RB—such as Dayot Upamecano (Bayern), Ibrahima Konate (Real Madrid), and Nordi Mukiele (Sunderland)—who all began their now highly successful careers in Leipzig. Given the contrasting performances in the season opener, we’re predicting another loss for Coach Daniel Thioune’s home team in the matchup between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig.
Werder Bremen vs. RB Leipzig AI Prediction
AI has taken a close look at the matchup on the Weser, and the value alert has been triggered for the goal total odds. Our artificial intelligence estimates the expected goals (xG) value for the match at 3.09. Against this backdrop, AI is predicting more than three goals in the Asian handicap market for the match between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig.
Werder Bremen – Statistics & Current Form
The team that finished 15th last season struggled this past campaign, not least due to poor home performances. The team from the Weser won just five of 17 home games and ultimately finished 14th in the home standings (5-4-8).
The offense, in particular, tested the nerves and patience of their own fans: With no more than 19 home goals, they had the second-worst tally behind St. Pauli (17). The defense, however, fared hardly any better. On average, they conceded 1.82 goals per game, and only 18 percent of their home games ended with a clean sheet.
Will Werder strike again after halftime?
At least in the second halves, however, Werder’s offense wasn’t quite as toothless. Bremen scored 14 of their 19 home goals after halftime. With that in mind, the odds for the home team to score in the second half are also worth considering in the matchup between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig.
Candidates for a Werder goal include the two new signings, Niclas Füllkrug and Eren Dinkci, who were brought in on loan from West Ham and Freiburg. They are expected to fill the void left by Romano Schmid’s departure. The Austrian consistently recorded double-digit goal contributions for Werder over the past three seasons, so the shoes he’s leaving behind are big.
Werder hardly seems competitive on defense
We also do not expect the situation in defense to improve—quite the opposite, in fact. While Karim Coulibaly’s transfer to Racing Strasbourg brought 20 million euros into Bremen’s coffers, the team simultaneously lost a great deal of quality in defense. This also applies to goalkeeper Mio Backhaus, who will now be guarding the net for league rival Freiburg.
For the time being, we cannot identify adequate replacements in either the backline or the attack, which is why we predict a difficult season for Werder’s defense. To make matters worse, Jens Stage remains sidelined for the long term due to injury.
This is a massive blow for Werder, as the attacking player has scored ten goals in each of the past two seasons. A track record that quickly makes it clear he’s virtually irreplaceable in Werder’s attacking play. Werder is trying nonetheless and, earlier this week, signed 23-year-old Youri Regeer on loan from Ajax Amsterdam. However, in our view, Stage’s shoes are too big for the Dutchman to fill, especially when it comes to his attacking quality.
RB Leipzig – Stats & Current Form
Leipzig has proven over the past few years that they’re excellent at scouting, as evidenced by numerous signings of young and highly talented players. Most were subsequently sold for massive profits, and last summer, the cash register at Cottaweg made an unmistakable “ka-ching” sound with the sale of Yan Diomande to Real Madrid.
The Dutchman was signed last year for 20 million euros from Leganés in Spain’s second division and has now been sold to Real Madrid for more than 100 million euros. On the other hand, with the exception of Christopher Nkunku—who is returning to Leipzig on loan from Milan—and this week’s signing of Marc Guiu from Chelsea, no major transfers have been made in the attacking department this time around.
While we believe Nkunku can quickly build on his successful time in Leipzig, doubts are warranted regarding the latter striker. At 20 years old and with few appearances for the “Blues,” the Spaniard is more of a mid-term reinforcement for RB’s offense.
Leipzig has bolstered its defense
The focus was more on defense, where Leipzig landed two top players from the Foals: Frenchman Maxime Esteve (Burnley) at center back and Rocco Reitz in defensive midfield. In light of this—and given the upcoming opponent’s at best average offense—the betting odds for the match between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig suggest that the hosts will score no more than one goal, which seems equally promising.
The visitors also generally had little trouble getting off to a strong start on the road last season: In just under two-thirds (65 percent) of their away games, they were the first team to score, and RB scored half of their 26 away goals before halftime!
Werder Bremen – RB Leipzig Head-to-Head Record
The two-time DFB Cup champion is not a favorite opponent for Bremen: Since May 18, 2019, and a 2-1 win at the Weserstadion, the North Germans haven’t beaten the team from the Pleiße! Since that win, they’ve suffered nine losses and drawn three times.
Furthermore, Werder has since suffered another defeat to RB in the DFB Cup after extra time. For the upcoming match between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig, the odds also point toward a victory for the visitors.
Werder Bremen – RB Leipzig Prediction
Werder’s first home game of the season is coming up, and the task is a very difficult one right off the bat against RB. Although the Saxons sold one of their top offensive players, Diomande, during the summer break, their roster is still clearly better stocked compared to Werder’s resources.
Furthermore, Bremen didn’t show any exceptional home form last season, and due to several departures, the team—which was already average at best—has lost even more quality, especially on defense. This assessment was confirmed by their season opener last Sunday.
They suffered a crushing 1–4 loss at Freiburg. Given this situation, we’re predicting an away win in the match between Werder Bremen and RB Leipzig.
