Leipzig with just one win in their last ten CL games
My Como vs. RB Leipzig prediction for Matchday 1 of the Champions League is all about a first. On Thursday, September 10, 2026, Como will host Leipzig at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia for the first European cup match in the club’s history. The Lombards’ rise has been meteoric; as recently as the 2018–19 season, the club was playing in the fourth-tier Serie D. A trajectory reminiscent of RB Leipzig’s in the 2010s.
Current form is crucial for the Como vs. RB Leipzig prediction. While the Italians have gotten off to an excellent start to the season with seven out of a possible nine points and a win in Naples, RB Leipzig suffered a 1-3 loss at Werder Bremen following a home win against Gladbach. Based on this warm-up match and the Italians’ strong performances, not only the bookmakers but also our AI prediction surprisingly see Como as the favorite.
Como vs. RB Leipzig AI Prediction
For the Como vs. RB Leipzig AI prediction, we take a close look at the data from our AI algorithm. The analysis shows a clear advantage for the home team. The AI calculates a 48.2% chance of victory for Como, while RB Leipzig’s chance stands at just 27.7%. The probability of a draw is 24.1%. The expected number of goals is particularly interesting. With an Expected Goals (xG) value of 2.78 goals for the entire match, the AI does not anticipate a high-scoring game. This stands in slight contrast to the betting odds, which offer odds of just 1.58 for over 2.5 goals.
Como – Statistics & Current Form
The Como vs. RB Leipzig odds reflect the Italians’ outstanding previous season. Como finished the 2025–26 season in fourth place in Serie A with 71 points. Their defense was particularly impressive, conceding just 29 goals in 38 matches—the best record in the league. Coach Cesc Fabregas’s team has seamlessly built on that success, getting off to a strong start to the new season with seven out of a possible nine points. They even managed a 2-1 away win at SSC Napoli.
Can this defensive fortress hold up on the European stage?
On offense, the squad received a high-profile boost with Moise Kean, who immediately contributed an assist on his debut in Genoa. The team’s creative force is Argentine Nico Paz, who already gained Champions League experience with Real Madrid and even won the title in 2024. He is the linchpin of the Lombards’ play. A decisive factor, however, is the entire team’s lack of international experience. For Como, this is their first-ever competitive European match, which promises a magical atmosphere at their home stadium, the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia. Despite their strong defense, Como has conceded exactly one goal in all three of their season matches so far.
RB Leipzig – Statistics & Current Form
Despite the opponent being the favorite, Leipzig should not be underestimated, as the Como vs. RB Leipzig betting odds suggest. The Saxons are returning to the Champions League after a one-year absence and have proven in the past that they can hold their own here; in 2019–20, they even reached the semifinals. Under new coach Martin Demichelis, they kicked off the Bundesliga season with a 3–0 win over Gladbach, though that was followed by a sobering 1–3 loss in Bremen.
Will Leipzig return to its former Champions League form?
While the offense has shown effort—registering 42 shots on goal in the first two matches—the four goals scored still leave room for improvement. Against Bremen in particular, the team lacked clear scoring chances, and their play often seemed uninspired. One major hope is Christopher Nkunku, who returned from AC Milan and had already scored at Lake Como while wearing the Rossoneri jersey last season. However, their recent record in the Champions League is problematic: RB has won only one of its last ten games (one draw, eight losses) and has not kept a clean sheet in 18 international competitive matches.
Como – RB Leipzig Head-to-Head Record
Since Como is playing its very first international competitive match, there have naturally been no previous encounters between these two clubs. A look at Leipzig’s record against Italian teams is nevertheless revealing. The Red Bulls have played six matches against Serie A sides, posting two wins, one draw, and three losses.
Interestingly, RB performs better in Italy than at home against Italian teams. Both of their wins against Serie A sides came on the road. There’s also an intriguing parallel: Como is only the fourth team to make its international debut directly in the Champions League. One of its predecessors was, of all teams, RB Leipzig in 2017. Coach Cesc Fabregas, with 104 Champions League appearances under his belt, makes up for the players’ lack of experience.
Como – RB Leipzig Prediction
Ultimately, two worlds collide: the euphoric debutant with a rock-solid defense and a perfect start to the season versus the experienced but struggling Champions League participant. Como is brimming with confidence, while Leipzig is under pressure following its defeat in Bremen. While the Saxons have the higher individual quality and more international experience, their recent record in the Champions League is alarming.
My Como vs. RB Leipzig prediction therefore focuses on a specific number of goals. Both teams have shown that they’re capable of scoring, but can also be vulnerable. Como’s strong defense will be put to the test, and Leipzig’s offense needs to regain its efficiency. Given Como’s defensive strength, I don’t expect a goal fest, but I also don’t expect a scoreless game, as Leipzig’s defense rarely holds up well on the road. Therefore, I recommend betting on a goal range of two to three goals in the match.
