How convincingly will Leverkusen secure its opening win?
For my Leverkusen vs. Celje prediction to kick off the Europa League group stage, the situation is clear. After a mixed start to the Bundesliga season, the Werkself is looking to make a statement on the international stage and confidently confirm their status as clear favorites against the Slovenian champions. The match at home in the BayArena kicks off on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, at 9:00 p.m.
My Leverkusen vs. Celje prediction is therefore very clear-cut. While Bayer 04 possesses tremendous offensive quality despite minor early struggles, Celje is currently struggling with form even in its domestic league. The difference in quality between the two teams is immense, which is why anything other than a clear home victory would be a major surprise.
Looking at the Leverkusen vs. Celje betting odds, it quickly becomes clear that a simple win bet on the home team offers little value. The odds at the top bookmakers average just 1.14. Combined bets or goal bets are therefore more promising. My focus is on the option “Leverkusen to win & Over 3.5 Goals,” since the Werkself have been very goal-hungry this season and have surpassed the 3.5-goal mark in all four competitive matches.
Leverkusen vs. Celje AI Prediction
Our in-house AI provides a clear assessment for the Leverkusen vs. Celje AI prediction. The model calculates an impressive 81.1% probability of victory for the Werkself, while a draw stands at 11.0% and a win for the visitors at just 7.9%. These figures confirm Bayer 04’s status as the overwhelming favorite. The expected goals (xG) are particularly revealing: AI predicts 2.55 goals for Leverkusen and a total of 3.10 goals for the match. This data supports the assumption that a high-scoring game is expected and that the value lies not in a straight win bet, but in combining it with a goal bet.
Leverkusen – Celje Head-to-Head Record
There has never been a direct matchup between these two clubs in the past. This is therefore a first. However, Bayer Leverkusen remains undefeated against Slovenian teams in its European cup history, with a record of one win and one draw against NK Maribor in the 1999–2000 season.
For NK Celje, this is not only their first matchup against a German Bundesliga team but also a historic moment. The club has qualified for the main round of a major European competition for the first time. The Leverkusen vs. Celje odds reflect this lack of experience at the highest level, as the historical record of German versus Slovenian teams clearly favors the Bundesliga side.
Leverkusen vs. Celje Prediction
In the final analysis, the signs point to a high-scoring home victory. Leverkusen has shown strong offensive play and created a high number of scoring chances in its most recent league matches. With Patrik Schick in top form—having scored in all four games this season—the Werkself has a true goal-scorer on their side. Celje, on the other hand, has shown defensive weaknesses, conceding six goals in three European away games.
My final Leverkusen vs. Celje pick is therefore “Leverkusen to win & Over 3.5 goals.” While Celje’s streak of 13 away games in which they’ve scored is remarkable, even a consolation goal from the Slovenians is unlikely to change the outcome of a clear and high-scoring home victory for the Werkself. Nevertheless, we’re adding “Leverkusen to win & both teams to score” as an alternative to our betting slip. “Leverkusen to win both halves” is also an option. Bayer 04’s offense is too strong to let this chance for a dominant start to the Europa League slip away.
