AC Milan is unbeaten in its last seven competitive matches against Benfica Lisbon
My AC Milan vs. Benfica Lisbon prediction for the Europa League opener is ready. The Rossoneri will host the Portuguese Eagles on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, at 9:00 p.m. at the legendary San Siro. After two draws in Serie A, AC Milan is looking to get back on the winning track, but Benfica Lisbon arrives with an impressive streak of 54 unbeaten league games. So it promises to be an exciting matchup.
For my AC Milan vs. Benfica Lisbon prediction, I’m taking a close look at both teams’ current form, the statistical data, and their head-to-head history. While the hosts remain undefeated under Rúben Amorim, Benfica Lisbon hasn’t lost a game since a defeat in the qualifying round. The bookmakers see the Italians as having a slight edge, but the odds point to an open match, which makes finding the right bet particularly interesting.
The AC Milan vs. Benfica Lisbon betting odds show that bookmakers expect a close game. Although AC Milan is considered the favorite, the odds for a home win are above 2.00, which means the probability of victory is estimated at less than 48%. This opens up interesting opportunities for your bets, especially beyond the classic 1X2 market.
AC Milan vs. Benfica Lisbon AI Prediction
Based on extensive data, the algorithm calculates the probabilities for the match outcome. The AI estimates AC Milan’s probability of winning at 48.0%, a draw at 24.7%, and a Benfica Lisbon win at 27.3%. This assessment aligns almost exactly with the bookmakers’ odds, which is why there is hardly any value to be found in the winner market.
More interesting are the expected goals (xG) figures. The AI predicts a total of 2.62 goals in the match (AC Milan 1.50 xG, Benfica Lisbon 1.12 xG). AC Milan’s games so far this season also show an xG of 1.43 and an xGA (expected goals against) of 1.43 as well. This points to an open game with chances on both sides and supports a bet on goals.
AC Milan vs. Benfica Lisbon Head-to-Head Record
The historical record clearly favors the Italians. In six official matches—all in the Champions League—Benfica Lisbon has never beaten AC Milan. The record stands at four wins for the Rossoneri and two draws, including the memorable 1–0 victory in the 1990 European Cup final.
The last meeting took place during the 2007–08 Champions League season, when AC Milan won 2–1 at home and drew 1–1 in Lisbon. Historically, these matchups have produced relatively few goals, which contrasts with the current form of both teams. The AC Milan vs. Benfica Lisbon odds for goal bets could therefore be particularly attractive.
AC Milan – Benfica Lisbon Prediction
In the final analysis, two teams in strong form—but not always solid defensively—are set to face off. AC Milan remains undefeated under Amorim but has conceded two goals in each of its last two matches. Benfica Lisbon hasn’t lost in eleven competitive matches and has scored at least once in each of those games. The Portuguese side’s offense is impressive, averaging 3.3 goals per game under coach Marco Silva.
My AC Milan vs. Benfica Lisbon prediction is therefore “Both Teams to Score.” The Rossoneri’s defensive vulnerability—they’ve already conceded an xGA of 5.7 in four games—meets the formidable scoring threat of Benfica Lisbon, led by striker Vangelis Pavlidis. Everything points to us seeing goals at both ends of the field in this Europa League showdown.
