Will the Broncos get back on track at home?
The Broncos, off to a rocky start, face the Jaguars, off to a dream start, in our Broncos vs. Jaguars pick. Much like the Patriots, it’s already becoming clear that Denver also slightly overperformed last season. We expect significantly fewer wins this year than the 14 they had last season.
Neither did the Jaguars, for that matter—though we may soon see adjustments here, given how dominant they looked again on Week 1. If the Jags win in Denver, they’re likely to storm into the top 10.
For the Broncos vs. Jaguars game, our prediction is therefore a close contest that won’t favor Denver as clearly as the betting odds might suggest. It wouldn’t surprise us if this game isn’t decided until the very last play of the fourth quarter. So, for Denver vs. Jacksonville, the odds on the Jags +4.5 to +5.5 are an option we should keep in mind.
We’ve already predicted a close game, which is likely also because we don’t expect a high-scoring affair. Seven of the last ten matchups between these teams have been low-scoring games, which is why the betting odds on the under (45.5) for Broncos vs. Jaguars also represent an attractive betting option.
Denver Broncos – Jacksonville Jaguars Head-to-Head Record
The last two meetings in Denver went to Jacksonville, so they know how to win at Mile High City’s altitude. Last year, the Broncos were even blown out 34–20 in their own stadium, with Trevor Lawrence throwing three touchdown passes and posting a QB rating of 115.4.
He also ran for a touchdown himself, which capped off his performance. We see Lawrence as the clearly better quarterback in this matchup, as Bo Nix already struggled against the Chiefs on Week 1. If Denver’s defense doesn’t have a stellar day (which can always happen), then the Jags actually have a chance to win here.
Denver Broncos – Jacksonville Jaguars Pick
The Broncos are considered slight to moderate favorites in this matchup, a view we wouldn’t necessarily agree with at this point. They’re still far from their form last year, which makes a few negative surprises possible from the Broncos’ perspective, especially at the start of the season.
However, since anything can happen in close games, we believe the best betting option for Broncos vs. Jaguars is a bet on a touchdown by Courtland Sutton. He didn’t get much playing time against Kansas City and is likely to see a significant increase in his role on Week 2. Additionally, he had one of his best games of the season in last year’s home game against the Jags and caught a touchdown pass there as well.
Another player bet option is a rushing touchdown by Trevor Lawrence. He also scored one last season in this very stadium, and the odds on it are extremely high at up to 4.50.
