Can Serbia Pull Off an Upset?
Matchday 1 in Group A2 has already shown just how close and exciting these matches can be, so the Serbia vs. Netherlands prediction raises some interesting questions. Both matches on Thursday evening weren’t decided until the closing stages: Serbia lost 1–2 at home to Greece, while the Netherlands secured a well-deserved point late in a 1–1 draw against Germany.
As a result, Serbia currently sits at the bottom of the table, while the Oranje have at least started the new Nations League era under Xavi with one point. In the second of four matches during this extended international break, both teams will now be looking to establish a strong starting position. The Serbs, in particular, are already under pressure after their poor start.
Serbia is currently facing significant defensive problems: The Orlovi have suffered a loss in seven of their last ten international matches, conceding a staggering 24 goals during that span. Veljko Paunovic’s record—two wins and five losses in seven matches—is also anything but convincing, leading to growing criticism, especially following the home loss to Greece.
For the Serbia vs. Netherlands match, it’s also notable that the team continues to rely heavily on established players—for example, Dusan Tadic was once again called upon to save the day after his comeback against Greece. At the same time, the new generation is still struggling to make a lasting impact, which is why the euphoria surrounding the national team within the country remains limited.
The Netherlands, on the other hand, made a good impression in their 1-1 draw against Germany, even though Cody Gakpo’s equalizer didn’t come until stoppage time. Overall, the point was well-deserved for the Oranje, and with better finishing, a victory against Jürgen Klopp’s “new Germany” might even have been possible. The first signs of Xavi’s new playing philosophy were already evident.
The problem, however, is that Brian Brobbey has been injured, and there’s still a question mark over Donyell Malen, who was already out against Germany. This means the team will have to generate more scoring threats from the center and down the wings, which is why I don’t necessarily expect a spectacular match at Rajko Mitić Stadium, but rather a controlled performance by the higher-quality Elftal. That’s exactly why I like the Serbia vs. Netherlands odds for the risk-adjusted match combo X2 & Under 3.5 at 1.67 on bwin.
Serbia – Netherlands Head-to-Head Record
However, looking at the head-to-head record won’t help at all ahead of this matchup, as Serbia and the Netherlands have never faced each other in an international match before. Accordingly, the lack of H2H history has no impact on the Serbia vs. Netherlands betting odds, so other factors are decisive.
After all, the No. 40 team in the FIFA World Rankings is facing the No. 9 team; furthermore, Serbia is not currently participating in the World Cup, while the Oranje are competing in the tournament. The odds are thus clearly stacked in one direction, despite the lack of head-to-head data.
Serbia vs. Netherlands Prediction
Serbia is already under pressure following a 1-2 home loss to Greece, while the Netherlands made a generally convincing start with a 1-1 draw against Germany. For the Serbs, it’s their weak defense—having conceded 24 goals in their last ten international matches—that raises the most questions, while the Oranje, however, have their own personnel concerns in attack with Brian Brobbey injured and Donyell Malen’s status in doubt. Overall, the higher individual quality, as well as Thursday’s performance, points to the Netherlands as the favorites.
For the Serbia vs. Netherlands pick, I particularly like the risk-adjusted combination of X2 & Under 3.5 goals. Another interesting alternative is the double result HT2/FT2 at 2.12, assuming the Dutch will translate their dominance on the field into goals on the scoreboard before halftime.
