Will North Macedonia remain one of Slovenia’s toughest opponents?
After the first matchday, Slovenia sits in second place in Group B1 of the Nations League with one point, while North Macedonia is in last place with no points. This Slovenia vs. North Macedonia prediction covers the first of two group matches on Tuesday. Bostjan Cesar’s squad is valued at around 182 million euros—nearly five times as much as North Macedonia’s—and is ranked 56th in the world. However, superstar Benjamin Sesko is out with an injury, so the quality advantage isn’t quite as great as some might think. Furthermore, the coach has won only one of five matches since taking over.
In search of the best possible Slovenia vs. North Macedonia prediction, we’ll first look at the home and away records. In 2025/26, Slovenia won just one of seven home games, drew five, and lost one. Their goal difference of 5–6 amounted to only 1.57 goals per game. Cesar’s team was thus tough to beat at home but rarely converted their quality into three points. North Macedonia, meanwhile, recorded two wins in nine away games during the same period, drew three times, and lost four times. With a goal difference of 6:17, their average stood at 2.56. The absence of so-called “home-field advantage” plays a key role in assessing the Slovenia vs. North Macedonia odds.
In this matchup, we’re also looking at how the two teams have performed recently. The hosts first lost 0–1 to Hungary, then beat Montenegro 3–2, and subsequently drew 1–1 with Cyprus. This was followed by a 1-2 loss in Croatia, before their Nations League opener against Scotland ended in a 0-0 draw.
The visitors first lost 0-4 to Denmark, then kept clean sheets in 0-0 draws against Ireland and Bosnia, and subsequently suffered a 0-4 defeat against Turkey. Most recently, they got off to a poor start in the competition with a 0–3 home loss to Switzerland. Sedloski’s team has gone five matches without scoring a goal. In terms of form, the home team has a slight edge—though neither nation is really in top form.
Slovenia – North Macedonia Head-to-Head Record
Of course, the head-to-head comparison is a must. For the Slovenia vs. North Macedonia betting odds, five direct matches yield the following results: one win for the hosts, two draws, and two wins for the visitors. The most recent matches have generally been close. In June 2021, the national teams tied 1–1 in a friendly.
Prior to that, the North Macedonian team won 2–1 at home in the 2019 European Championship qualifiers, after the first competitive match in Ljubljana had ended in a 1–1 draw. Four of the last five meetings have featured goals from both sides. The visiting team’s current scoring drought is temporarily dampening this historical trend.
Slovenia vs. North Macedonia Prediction
Our Slovenia vs. North Macedonia tip is “North Macedonia AHC +1.” This selection is based on three factors: Slovenia’s tendency to draw at home, the close head-to-head results, and Sesko’s absence. Without their key attacker, the preferred 4-2-3-1 formation is likely to lack punch. The hosts scored only twelve goals and conceded 15 in 15 matches during the 2025–26 season, while the visiting team posted a 14–23 record. Their nine-game winless streak, with a goal tally of 2–19, is daunting, but for our bet, a loss by no more than one goal is enough to get half the stake back or secure a partial win.
An alternative bet is “Under 2.5 Goals.” This selection aligns with the team’s current low scoring output. In three of the home team’s last five matches, the total fell below the proposed mark. On two occasions, they failed to score at all. The picture is even clearer for the visitors: The team has failed to score in five consecutive matches, and in each case, the “Both Teams to Score” market was “No.” After four matches in which they conceded at least one goal, Cesar’s team is likely to focus on control once again. Both coaches prefer a 4-2-3-1 formation, which, with deep-lying defensive midfielders, is designed to minimize risk.
