Will Klopp’s Lineup Shuffle Pay Off?
Our Germany vs. Serbia prediction must take into account that, for the third match of the UEFA Nations League at Munich’s Allianz Arena on Thursday evening, only six players from the first phase of training remain in Jürgen Klopp’s squad. The other 19 players have only been with the team since Monday, with the focus on players like Lennart Karl, Tom Bischof, and Nick Woltemade. Since the DFB team has gotten off to a terrible start with just one out of a possible six points, the pressure on the young squad is enormous. If they fail to secure a victory against the Orlovi as well, Germany would likely be left fighting solely to avoid relegation in Group A2.
It’s worth noting that Serbia actually started with zero points, missed the World Cup, and has lost five of its last six international matches (one win)—including the last four in a row.
And yet: The Germans have kept a clean sheet in only one of their last ten international matches and are once again heading into an international match with an untried lineup. We therefore definitely believe the Serbian team is capable of scoring, especially since the Orlovi have taken a 1-0 lead in all three of their previous international matches against Germany and held on to that score in their only competitive match during the 2010 World Cup group stage.
In any case, the Serbs have always put up a strong fight against the four-time world champions. Even in their only loss to Germany—a 1–2 defeat in Gelsenkirchen in May 2008—they led 1–0 at one point before ultimately losing by just one goal. Even now, it takes a lot of imagination to picture the struggling German national team knocking the Orlovi out of the Allianz Arena. The Asian handicap of +1.75 on the visitors, for which bet365 is offering odds of 1.98 for Germany vs. Serbia, therefore covers a wide range of possibilities.
On top of that, the Serbs held their own well in their two lost international matches against Greece and the Netherlands (both 1–2), posting xG values of 1.42 (against Greece) and 1.32 (against the Oranje). Ultimately, these hard-fought losses must be viewed as somewhat unfortunate.
Germany – Serbia Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 1 – 1 – 1
Since Serbia began competing as an independent nation, there have been only three international matches between the two teams. The German national team won only the very first encounter, a 2–1 victory in a friendly match in Gelsenkirchen in May 2008.
In their only competitive match during the 2010 World Cup group stage in South Africa, Germany actually suffered a 0–1 loss, before their most recent matchup—a friendly in Wolfsburg in March 2019—ended in a 1–1 draw. Notably, the Orlovi took the lead in all three international matches.
Germany vs. Serbia Prediction
Given that only six players from the first phase of training camp remain in Germany’s 25-man roster, the team’s usual chemistry is likely to be lacking once again. Already during the last week of training, Jürgen Klopp focused primarily on defensive work, which was likely the case again this time. However, there hasn’t been much substance to it yet. Against the Netherlands, Germany was lucky to concede just one goal given an xGA of 3.18. Against Greece, on the other hand, the team lacked not only the necessary creativity on offense but also, at the back, the passion to defend when the Greeks sensed their chance and went on a period of intense pressure.
Another problem is that the Serbian team, too, has its back against the wall after two losses. The Orlovi also have the talent to hurt the Germans. Although Dusan Vlahovic is out with an injury, the attacking trio of Dusan Tadic, Luka Jovic, and Dejan Joveljic has already proven its effectiveness. With that in mind, we’re betting that the Serbs will score an away goal regardless of the outcome of the match in Munich.
