Will the Falcons Disappoint Offensively Again?
Our Saints vs. Falcons pick on Monday features a mid-tier NFC South showdown. Both teams have started the season with a 1-2 record. However, perceptions of the two teams differ significantly.
While the Saints are riding a wave of positivity thanks to their convincing offense led by Tyler Shough, the Falcons have struggled considerably on that side of the ball. As a result, they’re averaging 10.0 fewer points per game than New Orleans (17.0 to 27.0).
That pretty much explains why we consider the Saints the favorites—we see them as a much better-oiled machine, while everything for Atlanta hinges on Bijan Robinson. In their last matchup, however, he managed only 33 rushing yards against the Saints, which speaks to the Saints’ defense’s strength against the run.
We’ll only give the Falcons a chance here if Robinson gains over 150 yards on Monday—which seems highly unlikely. So, for Saints vs. Falcons, our prediction is a home win for New Orleans. The NFC South showdown kicks off at 2:15 a.m. on Tuesday in New Orleans.
Before the season, the question in Atlanta was who would start at quarterback. After three games, it seems Michael Penix has settled the matter. However, since he isn’t among the NFL’s top 20 (unlike Shough, who is now), the odds on Atlanta in the Saints vs. Falcons game aren’t necessarily worth betting on.
New Orleans Saints – Atlanta Falcons Head-to-Head Record
Of the last ten matchups, the Saints and the Falcons have each won five. It’s generally been a series where the team in better form at the time has made the difference. Right now, that’s clearly the Saints, who recently suffered a very unlucky loss to the Raiders.
The Falcons, on the other hand, surprised the Packers at Lambeau Field—though the current Packers are merely a shadow of their former selves. We don’t expect the Falcons to face such a weak opponent again, which puts the betting odds for New Orleans vs. Atlanta on the Saints -2.5 in the spotlight.
Because even if the Falcons’ offense picks up steam again—the Saints’ offense actually looks a notch stronger right now, as the stats show (27.0 to 17.0 points; 382.7 to 340.7 yards per game).
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Pick
The Falcons have recently made a strong statement. But that doesn’t mean we’re ready to declare them “cured” just yet. However, this could contribute to a slightly higher-scoring game on Monday night, which also makes the over (over 47.5) an interesting bet.
Our top pick for Saints vs. Falcons, however, remains a bet on New Orleans -2.5, as they should be able to cover this narrow spread. Bets on the Saints + the over are also an option given the currently shaky defensive form of both teams (combined, they’ve allowed 50.4 points per game).
For the player bet, we’re also focusing on the Saints’ superior offense. With Etienne out, the other top players become interesting as touchdown scorers. We’re getting the best odds here on a touchdown by Juwan Johnson, who has already scored three touchdowns in three games this season.
