Will Inter secure its first three points in the Champions League?
In their last Champions League home game against Club Brugge, the Italian champions were the clear favorites—just as they are in my Inter Milan vs. Shakhtar Donetsk prediction. We all know how that ended. The Nerazzurri lost the match and now sit with zero points after two matchdays in the Champions League group stage. A first in history: For the first time in Champions League history, all four Italian clubs lost on a single group stage matchday, underscoring Serie A’s current weakness.
Consequently, the pressure is high on Cristian Chivu’s team following those two opening defeats. The situation is quite different for the reigning Ukrainian champions, who got off to a strong start in this Champions League season with four points. Therefore, in my Inter Milan vs. Shakhtar Donetsk prediction, I expect the visitors to play with confidence at San Siro and to score at least once themselves.
This time, however, despite all their current defensive weaknesses, I’m expecting a home win for the Italian champions. The Inter Milan vs. Shakhtar Donetsk odds for both teams to score are still considerably more attractive than the low odds for a home win, which is why I prefer this bet with my free bet.
Based on both teams’ performances so far, the odds for a home win might even be a bit too optimistic in favor of the hosts. In any case, I don’t see any value there.
Inter Milan vs. Shakhtar Donetsk AI Prediction
The xG value calculated by our AI for the Inter Milan vs. Shakhtar Donetsk AI prediction is 2.71 for the home team and 0.75 for the visitors. While I don’t disagree with the value for the Italian champions, I do believe Arda Turan’s team is capable of scoring at least one goal.
According to the Inter Milan vs. Shakhtar Donetsk AI prediction, there’s still very slight value in betting that neither team will score this coming Wednesday. While the current Winamax odds reflect a 48.7% probability for this outcome, the AI estimates the probability at 49.9%.
Inter Milan – Statistics & Current Form
In Serie A, Inter is already back on track. On the European stage, however, the Nerazzurri haven’t exactly struck fear into their opponents over the past two seasons. Following their early Champions League exit last season against underdog-slayer Bodø/Glimt, their home loss to Bruges has sealed a rocky start to the new Champions League campaign.
The opening-round loss to Real Madrid was certainly more expected than the defeat in their last home game against the underdog from Belgium. Therefore, Inter Milan must finally secure three points in their upcoming match to avoid falling behind early on.
Inter Milan is fired up
Mainly due to their own defensive shortcomings—which Inter has repeatedly displayed in their domestic league as well—they were unable to secure three points against Bruges. Despite scoring three goals of their own, which should have been enough for a win, goalkeeper Yann Sommer had to make four saves against the Belgians.
That’s why the bet on both teams to score piques my interest in this matchup, as their upcoming opponent also displays defensive weaknesses at the highest international level.
Shakhtar Donetsk – Statistics & Current Form
At the national level, Shakhtar Donetsk appears to have no competition this season either. With eight wins in nine matches, the team led by former Barcelona player Arda Turan tops the Premjer-Liha standings. In Turan’s debut season last year, the team from the mining region clinched the championship with a 12-point lead and is thus back in Europe’s premier competition after a one-year hiatus.
Can Donetsk pull off an upset?
Last season, Shakhtar reached the Conference League semifinals, and they’ve also gotten off to a strong start in this season’s Champions League. Following a draw in Eindhoven to open the campaign, they secured a home win against AEK Athens on the last matchday. Now, however, Inter Milan presents what is likely the toughest challenge of the new season so far—especially since the match is an away game at San Siro against the Italian champions.
Donetsk already has four points in the Champions League, while Inter is still waiting for its first point of the new Champions League season. To some extent, given the teams’ current standings, this upcoming matchup feels a bit like the world turned upside down. That said, it does little to change the fact that the Italians are clear favorites.
In my Inter Milan vs. Shakhtar Donetsk prediction, I still expect the visitors to play with confidence—after all, the heavy underdog has nothing to lose in this match. Just as against Bruges, the Nerazzurri could end up having more trouble with the supposed underdog than expected.
Inter Milan – Shakhtar Donetsk Head-to-Head Record
The Nerazzurri remain undefeated in the overall head-to-head record between the two teams. Three of the seven previous matches went to the Italian champions, with four draws. Inter celebrated two of their three wins against the Ukrainians at home at San Siro, where they also recorded two draws.
Inter Milan vs. Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction
The Italian champions certainly have the much stronger roster heading into this upcoming match. However, there’s no real value in betting on a home win, which is why I’m looking at different odds for Inter Milan vs. Shakhtar Donetsk. Especially since the Nerazzurri have shown in the recent past that they’re prone to the occasional slip-up, particularly on the international stage.
Even if the Ukrainian champions don’t manage to pick up a point at San Siro, I believe Arda Turan’s team is at least capable of scoring a goal of their own. For me, the bet that the underdog will even score twice against Inter’s shaky defense offers value—but also carries more risk.
In any case, the Champions League is currently firing on all cylinders. The last matchday set a new record for the competition with 79 goals scored in a single group stage matchday. Unfortunately, though, we can’t hope for high odds on a high-scoring game. After all, the bookmakers have naturally recognized the strengths and weaknesses of both teams and are also expecting a spectacle this coming Tuesday.
