Will one goal be enough for the Gunners to win?

There’s one aspect we absolutely must highlight in this Arsenal vs. Everton preview: the Gunners’ bench. Since the start of last season, no team in the English top flight has seen its substitutes make a bigger impact than the Londoners.

Thirteen different players have contributed scoring points off the bench since the start of the 2025–2026 season. The most recent example is the match against Nottingham. Mikel Arteta took Eberechi Eze off at halftime. By bringing on Noni Madueke, he injected more directness and pace into the game—with success. For our Arsenal vs. Everton prediction, the bench is therefore also a key factor.

But before we dive into the details, let’s take a look at the Arsenal vs. Everton betting odds. On the market, the implied win odds from sportsbooks for a home victory stand at just under 71 percent. From our perspective, this makes sense—Arsenal has accumulated the most expected points (14.5 xPTS) in the league.

While the Gunners are looking to boost their chances of defending their title, the Toffees are hovering in the middle of the table. Last weekend, David Moyes’s team suffered their first Premier League loss of the season (0–2 vs. Chelsea). It’s also worth noting that the visitors have won only two league games so far (4 draws).

All too often, Moyes’ team lacks clear scoring opportunities (0.09 xG/shot). When they struggle to create chances in the final third, they sometimes fire shots at the opponent’s goal from poor angles or positions. Consequently, their percentage of shots on target is low (31.25 percent). If any team has demonstrated discipline and control in defense in recent years, it’s the Londoners. Their defense has allowed the fewest expected goals against (5.56 xGA) so far.

Arsenal – Everton Head-to-Head Record

Arsenal hasn’t lost to Everton in seven Premier League meetings. Last season, the eventual champions won both matchups without conceding a goal. Including the two matches from the season before last, David Raya kept a clean sheet in three of four head-to-head matchups.

Currently, the home team is well on its way to repeating a home win without conceding a goal. The average quality of their opponents’ chances has so far reached a value of 0.07 xG per shot. No other team in the English top flight has a better figure.

Arsenal vs. Everton Prediction

Opponents’ shots aren’t just of low value—they’re also less frequent than against any other Premier League club. In total, only 21 shots have been directed at David Raya’s goal (1st). Furthermore, the Gunners consistently force their opponents to take long-range shots.

Only 52.56 percent of opponents’ shots were taken from inside the penalty area—also a league-best. Everton is by no means bringing the weakest defense to the Emirates Stadium (9.73 xGA, 0.10 xGA/shot), but they still can’t match the hosts’ level.

Compared to last season, the home team creates significantly more scoring threats when forced into longer sequences of passing. This change—or evolution—in Arteta’s squad has not, so far, come at the expense of their high level of control and defensive stability.