Will Carlitos get the rematch he promised?
In our Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz preview, the 2026 Paris Masters final pits two players against each other who made history just this past September. In the US Open quarterfinals, Big Ben defeated the Spanish superstar 3–2 after nearly four and a half hours, securing his first victory over Carlitos on his fourth attempt.
The match didn’t end until 3:33 a.m. local time—later than any US Open match in history. The Spaniard then promised—partly with a wink, but also partly with disappointment—that he would get his revenge for this loss. Now he has the chance to do so.
What makes this particularly intriguing is that, just before the tournament began, it was announced that Carlitos’ former coach, Juan Carlos Ferrero—who guided the Spaniard to his first six Grand Slam titles—will be joining Big Ben’s camp starting in 2027. This adds extra spice to the Ben Shelton vs. Carlos Alcaraz matchup, especially since both opponents are known for their fighting spirit.
The Spaniard saved two match points in the quarterfinals against Taylor Fritz, while Ben Shelton has had to go the full three-set distance in his last three matches in a row. We see a lot of value in betting that at least one set in this grand final will go to a tiebreak.
We also expect the American to take at least one set from the seven-time Grand Slam champion. In the semifinals against local favorite Luca Van Assche, Big Ben fought back after falling behind 0-1 in sets. Even in the deciding set, he didn’t let himself be rattled after falling behind 1–3 at one point and ultimately won 5–7, 6–3, 6–4. It was his 15th victory in 2026 after trailing in a set—an undisputed record among all players on the ATP Tour.
Ben Shelton – Carlos Alcaraz Head-to-Head Record
Head-to-Head: 1–3
The two players have faced each other four times so far, and Carlos Alcaraz still leads the head-to-head series with three wins. However, Alcaraz suffered his first loss in the aforementioned US Open quarterfinal, when Ben Shelton secured a 3-2 victory with a 7-6 win in the fifth set after nearly four and a half hours, knocking the Spaniard out of the tournament.
Ben Shelton – Carlos Alcaraz Prediction
On paper, the 23-year-old Spaniard is the favorite. Although he struggled with indoor tennis for a long time, he not only won the title in Vienna last weekend but also reached the final in Paris for the first time in his career. Here, Carlitos also gets the chance to avenge his quarterfinal loss at the 2026 US Open, when he fell to Ben Shelton 2-3 in a late-night marathon match.
Eight straight singles wins certainly speak in favor of the seven-time Grand Slam champion, though he did waver at times during the tournament. Against Taylor Fritz, Carlos Alcaraz had to fend off two match points.
But the true king of comebacks is Ben Shelton. Against Luca Van Assche, the American recorded his 15th comeback victory this season after trailing in a set—an undisputed record on the ATP Tour. We think Big Ben has a good chance of winning a set against Carlitos, but we expect at least one set in this grand final to go to a tiebreak.
